Proposed 2023 OBR/MLB Rule Changes

[The Man in Blue]

Maybe MLB is going after the wrong demographic?

[noumpere]

4 hours ago, maven said:

Why is soccer exciting? Damned if I know. Communist brain washing?

Soccer is the sport for kids who aren't coordinated enough to use their hands.

[noumpere]

Semi-serious suggestions:

1) Reduce the count for 4ball-3 strikes to 3-2 or 2-2

2) Reduce the size of the strike zone.

3) Reduce the flight of the ball

Combined, this will put more balls in play sooner, which leads to more "action" as perceived by the fans.

[beerguy55]

On 9/11/2022 at 6:18 AM, maven said:

Unlikely. How many times does this happen in a season? In a handful of the nearly 5000 regular season games? This is not a systematic waste of time that needs to be addressed by rule (which is not to deny that it is a waste of time).

Moreover, like fights in hockey, some fans regard this as a feature, not a bug (though hockey is a better bet for those fans).

This is one Canadian, and hockey fan, who thinks fighting needs to be eliminated from the game.   It's not only stupid, it's also responsible for 1 in 12 concussions in the NHL...for a league that claims to be doing "everything it can" to eliminate/reduce the chance of concussion, there's a very obvious way to get rid of 8% of them.

[beerguy55]

On 9/10/2022 at 7:12 AM, Catch18 said:

The BR is now closer to first base so he’ll get there faster and more guys will be on base, leading to more scoring.

The first baseman is now closer to the third baseman so he’ll catch the ball sooner and then…..uh, wait. Whoops.

The baserunner stealing is closer...six inches closer to the next base...that, along with the "only two pickoffs" rule will entice more stealing...stealing has dropped because analytics has shown that unless you're over 70% successful it's better to stay on first.  (consider that even Rickey Henderson was thrown out 19% of the time)  Now the players are much more selective in picking their spots, and smarter about using the information they have about pitchers and catchers.

These rules will raise the percentage.

 

[834k3r]

On 9/10/2022 at 5:01 PM, SeeingEyeDog said:

I've never understood this take...so, the ONLY people on this planet who dislike change are grumpy old men?

~Dawg

Can't say. For my experience though, we grumpy old men are the most vocal about our displeasure.

[BLWizzRanger]

45 minutes ago, beerguy55 said:

The baserunner stealing is closer...six inches closer to the next base...that, along with the "only two pickoffs" rule will entice more stealing...stealing has dropped because analytics has shown that unless you're over 70% successful it's better to stay on first.  (consider that even Rickey Henderson was thrown out 19% of the time)  Now the players are much more selective in picking their spots, and smarter about using the information they have about pitchers and catchers.

These rules will raise the percentage.

 

Disclosure:  I am a Pirates sufferer and I have passed this trait down to my son. I use them as the example but it goes to all of the low salaried teams.

*rant on*
If all of this was about making more excitement to draw the fans in and make more money, I would suggest a salary cap would have done more to draw the fans in.  The large city teams are sold out every game and they are charging a premium for the tickets.  It doesn't matter if it is the Yankees vs Boston or Yankees vs the Pirates.  The stadium is filled.

The Pirates can't fill a stadium unless a Yankees or Dodgers team comes in and all of visiting teams fans come to see the game.  If the Pirates are more competitive and have a chance to get into the wild card coming into September, that translates to 3-5 thousand more fans coming in. 

Make the Pirates ownership spend the money and, in turn, they will make more money.  The freaking NBA, NFL, NHL leagues are the proof.

*rant off*

So they are eliminating the shift to allow for more base hits.  They are making the bases closer to allow for more base running.  If you look at it another way, they are trying to move away from the launch angle, hit a HR every at bat era we are now in.  So they are eliminating the younger generation big bopper excitement and moving back to the strategery that most middle aged fans like and the money is in the middle aged fan.

They probably analyzed this but I wonder what raising the fences by two feet would have done.  Stadium limitations would have made moving the fences prohibitive and costly, but raising them would have eliminated, guessing here, 50+ HRs per year? Much lower than outlawing the shift, guessing 4 or 5 more base hits per game, but hustle doubles and triples are excitement too.

[beerguy55]

4 hours ago, BLWizzRanger said:

Disclosure:  I am a Pirates sufferer and I have passed this trait down to my son. I use them as the example but it goes to all of the low salaried teams.

*rant on*
If all of this was about making more excitement to draw the fans in and make more money, I would suggest a salary cap would have done more to draw the fans in.  The large city teams are sold out every game and they are charging a premium for the tickets.  It doesn't matter if it is the Yankees vs Boston or Yankees vs the Pirates.  The stadium is filled.

The Pirates can't fill a stadium unless a Yankees or Dodgers team comes in and all of visiting teams fans come to see the game.  If the Pirates are more competitive and have a chance to get into the wild card coming into September, that translates to 3-5 thousand more fans coming in. 

Make the Pirates ownership spend the money and, in turn, they will make more money.  The freaking NBA, NFL, NHL leagues are the proof.

*rant off*

So they are eliminating the shift to allow for more base hits.  They are making the bases closer to allow for more base running.  If you look at it another way, they are trying to move away from the launch angle, hit a HR every at bat era we are now in.  So they are eliminating the younger generation big bopper excitement and moving back to the strategery that most middle aged fans like and the money is in the middle aged fan.

They probably analyzed this but I wonder what raising the fences by two feet would have done.  Stadium limitations would have made moving the fences prohibitive and costly, but raising them would have eliminated, guessing here, 50+ HRs per year? Much lower than outlawing the shift, guessing 4 or 5 more base hits per game, but hustle doubles and triples are excitement too.

Keep in mind it's more than just bums in seats at particular stadiums - the TV revenue is where it's at.

Tampa was in the World Series in 2020, won their division in 2021, and will almost certainly make the post-season again this year...and they rank 28th in league attendance.

On Labor Day the Orioles, who were 2 1/2 games behind the Blue Jays for a wildcard spot, hosted a double-header against those Blue Jays...half the seats were still available for a true double-header (ie. your ticket got you both games)...and thousands of those in attendance were Blue Jays fans.  Stadium attendance is often not about who is or isn't competitive.

The ball park is about the experience, so you can make due if the game itself isn't as exciting as you'd hope...it comes down to whether or not you want to drop $500 or more for you and your family to get some decent seats, have some food, pay for parking, deal with traffic to and from, etc, etc, for that experience. 

Three weeks ago I sat behind the third base dugout and watched Alek Manoah throw 7 innings, four hits, 8 K's and one run against Shohei Ohtani's 7 innings, 9K, two hits and 0 runs...and loved every minute of it....the 18 inch hot dog ($11) and the $14 beer were secondary.

People aren't watching on TV because there's so much dead time - almost four minutes between batted balls in play....1/3 of all plate appearances end in a BB, HBP or K....batted balls where the defense has to make a play have trended down every year for 15 years or so...something like 10% down over that time frame.   There are, on average, about 48 batted balls where the defense has to make a play per game...that's for both teams combined.   There are roughly 300 pitches thrown in an average MLB game.  5/6 pitches are balls, strikes, unplayable foul balls, or HR's. (and don't get too excited about HR's...they make up 3 of those 300 pitches on average)

 

 

[MadMax]

On 9/12/2022 at 3:25 PM, beerguy55 said:

Keep in mind it's more than just bums in seats at particular stadiums - the TV revenue is where it's at.

[snip]

People aren't watching on TV because there's so much dead time - almost four minutes between batted balls in play....1/3 of all plate appearances end in a BB, HBP or K....batted balls where the defense has to make a play have trended down every year for 15 years or so...something like 10% down over that time frame.

Manfred's (and his core staff) entire drive and ethos is to maximize TV revenue. They are obsessed with the NFL's (lucrative) model, and have derived that games should function within a 3-hr time window. Broadcasting schedules are so rigorously tight and competitive for viewership, one of the primary ways that the NFL has assuaged the broadcasters' fears and worries is to demonstrate that the majority of their games will complete in that 3-hr window. Thus, even on a stinker of a game, the broadcaster can schedule programming following that time slot without (much) risk. 

Also, the NFL has promoted and taken decided advantage of Fantasy Football (and sports betting). Even on a stinker of a Thursday-night game, there is still a viewership who has a vested interest, because they have Cleveland's defense, or they have Jacksonville's TE on their fantasy team, or they're RealTime betting on plays. 

MLB is still prickly to sports betting. Any interested fans, who are not otherwise at a regular-season game, really aren't interested in individual plays – they're much more interested in runs and wins. More runs means more (likelihood of) wins. More wins means postseason. Postseason increases chances of a championship. Championship brings the parade. 

And today's Insta/Snap/Face-gram generation_s_ want the parade. 

On 9/12/2022 at 3:25 PM, beerguy55 said:

Tampa was in the World Series in 2020, won their division in 2021, and will almost certainly make the post-season again this year...and they rank 28th in league attendance.

You can't fault the Rays (the coaching staff & players) too much on this one – they play in an absolute joke of a domed stadium, in a pedestrian part of the Tampa Bay–St. Petersburg region. 

[GreyhoundAggie]

I'm a fan of the pitch clock and would love it to come to the HS level, but I know that's a long way off if ever.

Banning the shift I'm more against. Let teams line up their defense how they wish and its on the hitter to beat it.

[dumbdumb]

Let the batters bring their own personalized tee ball tee up and put the ball where they want it. Have the umpire hand the batter a hanky from his ball bag to cry on when they make an out.

Ball boys will resupply the umpire with a couple of baseballs as needed for one ball bag and hanky's to pass out in the other ball bag. 

If you want. 2:30-3:00 hour time limit. If tied, 10 live pitches only home run contest, with each team using their own pitch coach to pitch to their own batters. If still tied, oh well, a tied game. Deal with it.

[The Man in Blue]

On 9/11/2022 at 3:27 PM, noumpere said:

Semi-serious suggestions:

1) Reduce the count for 4ball-3 strikes to 3-2 or 2-2

2) Reduce the size of the strike zone.

3) Reduce the flight of the ball

Combined, this will put more balls in play sooner, which leads to more "action" as perceived by the fans.

 

Reduce the size of the strike zone?!  I think you mean expand it to force the hitters to hit more. 

[noumpere]

57 minutes ago, The Man in Blue said:

 

Reduce the size of the strike zone?!  I think you mean expand it to force the hitters to hit more. 

No reduce it.  Force the pitchers to throw at 90% to get a strike and give the batter's a smaller area to "protect" in order to hit the ball.

[flyingron]

Just get rid of the pitcher all together.   Get one of those t-ball things and plop it on the plate.

 

[The Man in Blue]

3 hours ago, noumpere said:

No reduce it.  Force the pitchers to throw at 90% to get a strike and give the batter's a smaller area to "protect" in order to hit the ball.

Ahh ... I am laughing at this.  I don't agree with the logic, but I understand it.  Kind of like the difference between NFHS slow pitch and fast pitch softball.

#BringingBackTheEephus

[The Man in Blue]

59 minutes ago, flyingron said:

Just get rid of the pitcher all together.   Get one of those t-ball things and plop it on the plate.

 

That is my answer in response to "robo-umps."  The umps aren't the problem, the pitchers are.  Replace the pitchers with pitching machines.

[dumbdumb]

AFL to use new MLB rule changes for next year and a pitch challenge (3) rule.

https://www.mlb.com/news/arizona-fall-league-rosters-2022

[UmpDC]

I'm not at all sure these changes address what is really wrong.  The trouble is people playing "three result" baseball, meaning they're going to walk, strike out or hit a home run.  None of these changes addresses this at all.

Metrics will still say stealing bases isn't cost effective baseball.  People will still be at the plate trying to yank every pitch out of the yard and there will still be five minutes of commercial breaks between half innings.  Now without a shift there is little to no incentive for that to change.  None of this will speed up the major league game appreciably.

Every form of live entertainment is designed to take three hours because before television people had three hours to kill between the time they finished supper (7 PM) to when they went to bed (10 PM).  So everything from plays to baseball to football etc was designed to take three hours per ticket purchased.  Look at the start windows for NFL games.  1 PM and 4 PM.  The football games all take 3 hours all told and there is far less "action time" in a football game then there is in a baseball game.  It's the same with a movie(standard is two hours plus previews plus built in "concession time" and travel), a Broadway show or what have you.  Live entertainment is based on that time bloc.  So baseball isn't "too slow".  It's just that the metrics of the game have dictated that "three result" baseball is the most "winning efficient" baseball to be played at the major league level.   Three result baseball makes for a lot of standing around while hitters wait for pitches they believe they can drive out of the park.  These rules changes can't and don't address that.

As far as the shift goes, my playing days are long over, but when I played the most insulting thing you could do to a hitter is call the outfield in close to the infield.  That was telling the hitter "we don't think you can hit it over our heads".    That was a shift and the solution was to hit it over their heads a couple of times.  Otherwise the hitter had to figure out how to hit it where the defense wasn't.  If someone shifts all the defense to one side of the field, they're telling the hitter the exact same thing.  The solution would be to learn to hit the ball the other way, like people did for about a hundred years before now.  Instead of adjusting their approach, hitters whined for a rules change.  It's weak.

They might as well draw small chalk circles in the field and tell the fielders they can't leave those circles to make a play.

They should widen the zone to get people swinging and force hitters to stop waiting for a cookie they can hit out of the park.  That would speed up the game and stimulate offense.  Every good umpire knows the key to moving a game is "Strike One".  If you can get it consistently the game pace will pick up.  Seems MLB has forgotten that.

YMMV

[beerguy55]

2 hours ago, UmpDC said:

'm not at all sure these changes address what is really wrong.  The trouble is people playing "three result" baseball, meaning they're going to walk, strike out or hit a home run.  None of these changes addresses this at all.

Metrics will still say stealing bases isn't cost effective baseball.  People will still be at the plate trying to yank every pitch out of the yard and there will still be five minutes of commercial breaks between half innings.  Now without a shift there is little to no incentive for that to change.  None of this will speed up the major league game appreciably.

People play three result baseball because the shift forces them to do so.  OR, the shift is a result of three result thinking.  In either case, removing/limiting the shift will theoretically create more action, and create more plays where the defense needs to do something.

Metrics say you need to be successful more than 70% of the time to make stealing worthwhile...being six inches closer to the bag, and limiting the number pickoffs will increase the stealing success rate for a high number of people, which will increase the number of steal attempts...and until the success rate drops back down it will become a bigger element of the game.

2 hours ago, UmpDC said:

Every form of live entertainment is designed to take three hours because before television people had three hours to kill between the time they finished supper (7 PM) to when they went to bed (10 PM).  So everything from plays to baseball to football etc was designed to take three hours per ticket purchased.  Look at the start windows for NFL games.  1 PM and 4 PM.  The football games all take 3 hours all told and there is far less "action time" in a football game then there is in a baseball game.  It's the same with a two hour movie, a Broadway show or what have you.  Live entertainment is based on that time bloc.  

 

Evening baseball wasn't even a thing in the early days of television.  Afternoons at the ball park. Football was Saturday and Sunday afternoons long before television.  They've simply made it fit into convenient three hour blocks to make it work for programming and advertising...they know they'll never get it into a two hour block.

Early movies were barely an hour - Dracula and Frankenstein were about 70 minutes.     Movies take what they take...Wizard of Oz was 100 minutes, Gone with the Wind was 240 minutes...same year.  Most 80's comedies come in at 90 minutes, including musical collages.

Most people simply don't want to spend all frigging day on one activity...they got other SH*# to do.   Soccer is done in two hours if you really want to set the bar around the most popular sport in the world.

2 hours ago, UmpDC said:

As far as the shift goes, my playing days are long over, but when I played the most insulting thing you could do to a hitter is call the outfield in close to the infield.  That was telling the hitter "we don't think you can hit it over our heads".    That was a shift and the solution was to hit it over their heads a couple of times.  Otherwise you had to figure out how to hit it where they weren't.  If someone shifts all the defense to one side of the field, they're telling the hitter the exact same thing.  The solution would be to learn to hit the ball the other way, like people did for about a hundred years before now.  Instead of adjusting their approach, hitters whined for a rules change.  It's weak.

Far different when everyone is tossing 80 mph vs 99 mph.  Hitting is hard enough as it is to ask a pro ball player to change the foundations and fundamentals of the swing that got them to the majors.  It's actually easier to change your launch angle and try for power/distance than it is to start hitting the opposite way.  Babe Ruth literally changed this approach for the entire league.  By shifting to trying to hit it over people, instead of around people, he not only increased his HR count, but also his average and OBP.  HR's are hits, and he got more hits by going for the fences, and led in a new type of hitter.

2 hours ago, UmpDC said:

They should widen the zone to get people swinging and force hitters to stop waiting for a cookie they can hit out of the park.  That would speed up the game and stimulate offense.  Every good umpire knows the key to moving a game is "STrike One".  If you can get it consitently the game pace will pick up.  Seems MLB has forgotten that.

Widening the zone simply causes more strikeouts, not more offense.  Statistically most batters have their lowest averages swinging at pitches on the fringes of the plate and zone...expanding that zone just expands the area where batters are less successful when they hit the ball.  A wider zone increases the likelihood of swinging at pitches that break out of the zone.  You will see more swings and misses, more called strikes, and more weakly hit balls.  Wider strike zones are good for umpires who want to go home early...they're never good for offenses (except perhaps against very bad defenses).

Edit: for 12 year-olds, widening the strike zone reduces walks and forces kids to swing, and at that level anything can happen to any ball put in play...it discourages the kid/coach that goes up there looking for walks, knowing that most kids will struggle to put the ball anywhere in a 2x2 foot square target; so make it bigger - the batter will swing at anything he can touch with his bat.  At the pro level, where pitchers can routinely put the ball into the exact 2x2 INCH location they want to put it, you're just asking for record K results.

2 hours ago, UmpDC said:

So baseball isn't "too slow".  It's just that the metrics of the game have dictated that "three result" baseball is the most "winning efficient" baseball to be played at the major league level.   These rules changes can't and don't address that.

The pitch clock and the pickoff limit will address that.  The issue isn't how long the game takes, it's how much dead space there is - pitchers stepping on and off, batters dicking with their gloves, pickoffs, look backs, conferences, etc.   At least in football things are moving and flowing, even if the ball isn't....they just need to fix the score, timeout, kickoff, timeout part and they'll be really golden.   Baseball, there is too much time between pitches, and way too much time between defensive plays.   

[Senor Azul]

In a handful of the nearly 5000 regular season games? 

Isn’t this number wrong? I can see how it is derived—there are 30 MLB teams and they each play 162 games in the championship season—30 x 162 = 4860. That would be the “nearly 5000” but don’t we need to divide 4860 by two?

So—4860/2 = 2430 actual games played during the regular season.

[StatsUmp]

Bring back the 1860-era rules rule where balls caught on one bound were an out and any foul ball caught or fielded on on bound were outs. That should shorten the game some. 😀

[834k3r]

15 hours ago, StatsUmp said:

Bring back the 1860-era rules rule where balls caught on one bound were an out and any foul ball caught or fielded on on bound were outs. That should shorten the game some. 😀

I think MLB ought to take some cues from the Savannah Bananas if only how to make the game more exciting at times.

No mound visits? I'll take that.

Batter steps out of the box it's a strike? Where do I sign?

Foul balls caught by the audience are outs? Sure.

Batter being able to steal 1st on a passed ball at any point in the count? Yes, please.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-05-16/banana-ball-rules-of-the-game-savannah-bananas-baseball

[flyingron]

3 hours ago, 834k3r said:

 

Foul balls caught by the audience are outs? Sure.

 

Love it.   I remember in my youth hanging out in the old Memorial Stadium in Baltimore.   If a fan caught a fly ball, the announcer would come on the PA and say "Give that fan a contract!"

 

[ilyazhito]

I agree. Bench clearing = ejection. Many sports have rules that if you leave the bench or your position during a fight, you're gone. 

What do y'all think about technical fouls in baseball (penalty outs if there misbehavior by the offense, base awards if the defense misbehaves)? There already are infractions that are charged penalty strikes (refusing to get in the batter's box), penalty balls (illegal pitches), base advances (balks, obstruction), or outs (interference).