Penalty or play?

[Jimurray]

Astros at Rockies, 7/25, top 4, 1out, tied at 1.
Runners at the corners, Reddick clips F2s glove but hits a dribbler to the pitcher who muffs it and and it's fielded by one of the infielders. Reddick stays there pointing at the glove while PU Layne points it and waits for something to happen. Typical CI goatrope. Infielder finally tosses the ball to 1B and I guess Layne then awarded Reddick 1B, forcing R1 to 2B and he returned R3, who had scored on the goatrope, to 3B. As expected at this level, game proceeded with no effort by Layne to ask the manager if he wanted the penalty or the play (run scored, batter out and R1 safe at 2B) and the manager did not come out.

So did Hinch know he had a choice and wanted 1 out with 2 RISP vs. 2outs, 2runs and 1RISP? What about you coach, @beerguy55, @Rich Ives, do want the penalty or the play?

[Rich Ives]

3 hours ago, Jimurray said:

Astros at Rockies, 7/25, top 4, 1out, tied at 1.
Runners at the corners, Reddick clips F2s glove but hits a dribbler to the pitcher who muffs it and and it's fielded by one of the infielders. Reddick stays there pointing at the glove while PU Layne points it and waits for something to happen. Typical CI goatrope. Infielder finally tosses the ball to 1B and I guess Layne then awarded Reddick 1B, forcing R1 to 2B and he returned R3, who had scored on the goatrope, to 3B. As expected at this level, game proceeded with no effort by Layne to ask the manager if he wanted the penalty or the play (run scored, batter out and R1 safe at 2B) and the manager did not come out.

So did Hinch know he had a choice and wanted 1 out with 2 RISP vs. 2outs, 2runs and 1RISP? What about you coach, @beerguy55, @Rich Ives, do want the penalty or the play?

Probably the play but I can envision a time to take the penalty. Right batter coming up. Pitcher "losing it".

[beerguy55]

11 hours ago, Jimurray said:

Astros at Rockies, 7/25, top 4, 1out, tied at 1.
Runners at the corners, Reddick clips F2s glove but hits a dribbler to the pitcher who muffs it and and it's fielded by one of the infielders. Reddick stays there pointing at the glove while PU Layne points it and waits for something to happen. Typical CI goatrope. Infielder finally tosses the ball to 1B and I guess Layne then awarded Reddick 1B, forcing R1 to 2B and he returned R3, who had scored on the goatrope, to 3B. As expected at this level, game proceeded with no effort by Layne to ask the manager if he wanted the penalty or the play (run scored, batter out and R1 safe at 2B) and the manager did not come out.

So did Hinch know he had a choice and wanted 1 out with 2 RISP vs. 2outs, 2runs and 1RISP? What about you coach, @beerguy55, @Rich Ives, do want the penalty or the play?

At this point in the game I likely take the penalty - I'm not sacrificing an out for a run here if I don't have to...I'll take bases loaded and one out and look for a big inning.   Later in the game, I'll take the run...probably seventh or later....and only if I'm trailing by one/have a lead...otherwise, looking to score more than one.

And batter gets 30 pushups for not running.

[LRZ]

I am curious about how this played out in the Astros/Rockies game.

[Jimurray]

13 minutes ago, LRZ said:

I am curious about how this played out in the Astros/Rockies game.

Altuve scored on an grounder to the infield, 2 out, then Tucker grounded out leaving 2 on base. If Hinch took the play it would not have made a difference.

[Tborze]

Shouldn't the option still have been given?  Or is it in MLB that you give the penalty and it's the managers job to accept the play?

[stkjock]

12 minutes ago, Tborze said:

Shouldn't the option still have been given?  Or is it in MLB that you give the penalty and it's the managers job to accept the play?

At the MLB level it's on the Manager.

 

I know several members I think would say at below HS levels he would offer the choice to a HC

[CJK]

2 hours ago, stkjock said:

I know several members I think would say at below HS levels he would offer the choice to a HC

If I'm enforcing that penalty correctly and the coach asks how come his runner can't score, I'd ask him if he's saying he wants the option to take the play.

If he doesn't even ask a question about it, though, I'm not going to do his job for him.

[beerguy55]

20 hours ago, Jimurray said:

Astros at Rockies, 7/25, top 4, 1out, tied at 1.
Runners at the corners, Reddick clips F2s glove but hits a dribbler to the pitcher who muffs it and and it's fielded by one of the infielders. Reddick stays there pointing at the glove while PU Layne points it and waits for something to happen. Typical CI goatrope. Infielder finally tosses the ball to 1B and I guess Layne then awarded Reddick 1B, forcing R1 to 2B and he returned R3, who had scored on the goatrope, to 3B. As expected at this level, game proceeded with no effort by Layne to ask the manager if he wanted the penalty or the play (run scored, batter out and R1 safe at 2B) and the manager did not come out.

So did Hinch know he had a choice and wanted 1 out with 2 RISP vs. 2outs, 2runs and 1RISP? What about you coach, @beerguy55, @Rich Ives, do want the penalty or the play?

Your question got me thinking about what stats say, so I did some digging...for anyone who cares, based on a couple of different sites I found, based on historical data:

Scenario 1 - R2, two outs, 1 run in  (take the play)

Scenario 2 - R1/R2/R3, one out, no runs in (take the penalty)

Expected Runs:

• R2, two outs - 0.33 plus the run in = 1.33 (for sake of argument, R3 is 0.38)
• R1/2/3, one out - 1.57

Taking the penalty results in zero runs 34% of the time. 

Taking the play (and the run) results in scoring only that one run 78% of the time.   

End inning with two runs or more:

• Scenario 1 - 22%
• Scenario 2 - 41%

End inning with three runs or more:

• Scenario 1 - 7%
• Scenario 2 - 24%

[Jimurray]

24 minutes ago, beerguy55 said:

Your question got me thinking about what stats say, so I did some digging...for anyone who cares, based on a couple of different sites I found, based on historical data:

Scenario 1 - R2, two outs, 1 run in  (take the play)

Scenario 2 - R1/R2/R3, one out, no runs in (take the penalty)

Expected Runs:

• R2, two outs - 0.33 plus the run in = 1.33 (for sake of argument, R3 is 0.38)
• R1/2/3, one out - 1.57

Taking the penalty results in zero runs 34% of the time. 

Taking the play (and the run) results in scoring only that one run 78% of the time.   

End inning with two runs or more:

• Scenario 1 - 22%
• Scenario 2 - 41%

End inning with three runs or more:

• Scenario 1 - 7%
• Scenario 2 - 24%

I'm guessing Hinch knew he had a choice.

[beerguy55]

1 hour ago, Jimurray said:

I'm guessing Hinch knew he had a choice.

I'm hoping he knew he had a choice, but I've seen MLB Managers mangle easier rules...

[Gfoley4]

PU was a bit premature to call time I believe. Should have waited until B/R was retired, no? Would that have had any effect on if the defense wanted to take the play? Or they would have just acted like time wasn't called. (F5 threw to F3 just after this)

[Jimurray]

16 minutes ago, Gfoley4 said:

PU was a bit premature to call time I believe. Should have waited until B/R was retired, no? Would that have had any effect on if the defense wanted to take the play? Or they would have just acted like time wasn't called. (F5 threw to F3 just after this)

I watched it on MLBtv and I didn't notice that as a time signal. It might have been a no catch to confirm the ball hit on a bounce near the plate. But they didn't show everything that transpired. I don't know when Layne killed it but I think it was after the infielder threw to 1B.

[Gfoley4]

Just now, Jimurray said:

I watched it on MLBtv and I didn't notice that as a time signal. It might have been a no catch to confirm the ball hit on a bounce near the plate. But they didn't show everything that transpired. I don't know when Layne killed it but I think it was after the infielder threw to 1B.

No, that screenshot is from mlb.tv and it was the beginning of his time signal. His hands are pretty much cut off from this point on so I screenshotted this.

[Jimurray]

8 minutes ago, Gfoley4 said:

No, that screenshot is from mlb.tv and it was the beginning of his time signal. His hands are pretty much cut off from this point on so I screenshotted this.

I didn't see a time signal and the defense finally figured out they needed to do something. They don't show enough in the video. Typical CI goatrope.

[Gfoley4]

1 minute ago, Jimurray said:

I didn't see a time signal and the defense finally figured out they needed to do something. They don't show enough in the video.

here you go, I wasn't lying. 

[Jimurray]

6 minutes ago, Gfoley4 said:

here you go, I wasn't lying. 

Wow, that definitely is before the lob to 1B. Goatrope all around. Crew escaped a bunch of "what ifs".

[noumpere]

5 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

Your question got me thinking about what stats say, so I did some digging...for anyone who cares, based on a couple of different sites I found, based on historical data:

 

Thanks -- I knew those stats existed, I just didn't care enough to go digging.  I also know that giving up the out is "never" the right thing to do according to the stats.  So, I came to the same conclusion you did -- go for the most runs early; go for the sure thing if the one run makes a difference late.  And, of course, the specific batter / pitcher configuration might make a difference as well.

[Jimurray]

On 7/27/2018 at 5:34 PM, beerguy55 said:

I'm hoping he knew he had a choice, but I've seen MLB Managers mangle easier rules...

@beerguy55 FYI, I just saw this on a Rich Marazzi article: “Altuve crossed the plate on the play but Reddick never ran to first and was thrown out. Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch never exercised his option. He said,” I did consider taking the play as is, but I preferred to play for the bigger inning.  One run in that ballpark never feels like enough, so I opted to take the bases loaded AB rather than concede an out.”

Hinch knew he had the option. Whether the premature time call would have preclude allowing the score we don’t have to worry about. 

[Richvee]

Reading this and laughing to myself....What are the chances Aaron Boone knows this rule.

[BT_Blue]

6 hours ago, Richvee said:

Reading this and laughing to myself....What are the chances Aaron Boone knows this rule.

I would bet somewhere between Buckley's and None! Lol

Pretty sure that Boone is one of those managers that Beerguy was talking about when he said this.

On 7/27/2018 at 3:34 PM, beerguy55 said:

I've seen MLB Managers mangle easier rules...

 

[Richvee]

11 hours ago, BT_Blue said:

I would bet somewhere between Buckley's and None! Lol

Pretty sure that Boone is one of those managers that Beerguy was talking about when he said this.

 

Absolutely. I don't remember his score, but I believe Mr. Boone had one of the lowest out of everyone who took the ESPN rules test a few years back. 

 

Ah yes..A little research reveals the embarrassing 1/10 correct. 

https://www.closecallsports.com/2013/06/espn-baseball-quiz-media-scores-low.html

[dumbdumb]

So play this out. What if manager says check with New York because Layne killed play in progress. What do you do now if it proves he killed play too soon? How do you administer play on field and do you bring up any interference options during this discussion if there are any, due to pre-mature time out. Kind of like when Kellogg killed play early and no one noticed but camera caught it a couple of years ago.

[noumpere]

All you can do is fix it the best you can.  As a general statement, the rule book is written assuming the umpires never mess up, so there's limited guidance on what to do.

[Jimurray]

No need to go to NY. Hinch goes to Layne and says he wants the play. Layne scores Altuve and calls Reddick out. Leaves R1 at 2B. Rockies manager comes out and says you can’t score Altuve, time was called. Layne says “I did signal but no one noticed or responded to the time signal except for some guy watching named @Gfoley4. But if you protest and win we might have to restart the game from this point. Hinch would then have the better percentage play as per another guy on the effing web site, @beerguy55 “ Rockies manager says nevermind Hinch did me a favor by picking the lower percentage option. 

But the crew did escape some other sht that could have happened.