Dunner-Kruger effect

[Richvee]

I admit I have never seen or heard of this before. I came across the graph, and while it fits many situations, the knowledge of baseball rules came to mind immediately. 
I think it parallels an umpire’s journey rather precisely. We all think we know all the rules when we start. And we’re confident we do. Then we open the rule book, go to clinics, and quickly learn we’ve got a lot to learn. Then we spend years climbing the “slope of enlightenment.”

The other thing that struck me was the area I shaded red. “The peak of mount stupid”. It’s a small little bump, but it’s where 95% of parents and fans fall, and they never move. Their ignorance makes it impossible for them realize how ignorant they are. 🤪

[SeeingEyeDog]

Valley of despair? That is a never-ending, 3D suck-hole/gravity well where umpires constantly find themselves on these parabolic vectors being drawn back across the known (and the unknown?) knowledge base of The Game's rules. (Those of us privileged to work in multiple leagues with multiple rule sets have yep...multiple suck-holes pulling on our confidence.) Each time we whiz by a suck-hole, we've built up a bit more "confidence velocity" so, each subsequent trip builds our confidence as our rules knowledge grows so that we spend less and less time near the suck-hole and it takes us less and less time to navigate across the gaping maw of said suck-hole. Respectfully, I don't think a 2D graph does our existence justice...

And then...all it takes is one kicked call, one missed nuance that we must know...maybe it involved poor rules knowledge and or application and maybe it didn't but now out of nowhere it's time to "set the controls for the heart of the suck-hole" once again, erode some confidence, check our uplink to the satellite of knowledge for review and reeducation and maybe never even see that play ever again after another 1,000 games or so...if ever...

Cosmic @Richvee...epically cosmic...man, the colors out there are just outta' sight...

~Dawg

[Richvee]

2 minutes ago, SeeingEyeDog said:

Valley of despair? That is a never-ending, 3D suck-hole/gravity well where umpires constantly find themselves on these parabolic vectors being drawn back across the known (and the unknown?) knowledge base of The Game's rules. (Those of us privileged to work in multiple leagues with multiple rule sets have yep...multiple suck-holes pulling on our confidence.) Each time we whiz by a suck-hole, we've built up a bit more "confidence velocity" so, each subsequent trip builds our confidence as our rules knowledge grows so that we spend less and less time near the suck-hole and it takes us less and less time to navigate across the gaping maw of said suck-hole. Respectfully, I don't think a 2D graph does our existence justice...

And then...all it takes is one kicked call, one missed nuance that we must know...maybe it involved poor rules knowledge and or application and maybe it didn't but now out of nowhere it's time to "set the controls for the heart of the suck-hole" once again, erode some confidence, check our uplink to the satellite of knowledge for review and reeducation and maybe never even see that play ever again after another 1,000 games or so...if ever...

Cosmic @Richvee...epically cosmic...man, the colors out there are just outta' sight...

~Dawg

🤣🤣Thanks. That was a fun read. Yes indeed, the slope of enlightenment sure can be a slippery slope. 🤣

[johnnyg08]

Yep. I believe that this fits nicely into what we do. 

This describes the average fan who used to play or currently plays. 

They believe they know way more than they actually do and it's dangerous.

[Kevin_K]

IIRC, Donald Rumsfeld spoke of the unknown unknowns. I think I like the peak of Mt Stupid much better!

I have spent my professional life teaching and learning about American History, the United States Constitution, and all things government. So many of the people I have the chance to engage with are willing to listen and perhaps learn that what they thought they know is actually not accurate.

It is the aggressively stupid, however, who never recognize that their lack of knowledge and their dogmatic clinging to inaccurate beliefs only restrict a real understanding of many things. 

[MadMax]

I don’t think that graph / chart is representative of today’s intense disparity. 

Vis a vís, that line-segment between Mt Stupid and Valley of Despair isn’t that… kind. Instead, it’s a plummeting, shear cliff-face, with a few – maybe half-a-dozen – rock shelfs, barely wide enough to get your fingers or toes a grip into. 
… and we, as today’s culture, fight viciously over and from these precarious positions. 

Furthermore, we often fight not to necessarily get anywhere – as you can see, there is no path from this chasm – but to simply (and cruelly) knock the other guy (or girl) off and down!!  
 

This – literally, figuratively, metaphysically, etc. – gets us nowhere. 

[Richvee]

44 minutes ago, MadMax said:

I don’t think that graph / chart is representative of today’s intense disparity. 

Vis a vís, that line-segment between Mt Stupid and Valley of Despair isn’t that… kind. Instead, it’s a plummeting, shear cliff-face, with a few – maybe half-a-dozen – rock shelfs, barely wide enough to get your fingers or toes a grip into. 
… and we, as today’s culture, fight viciously over and from these precarious positions. 

Furthermore, we often fight not to necessarily get anywhere – as you can see, there is no path from this chasm – but to simply (and cruelly) knock the other guy (or girl) off and down!!  
 

This – literally, figuratively, metaphysically, etc. – gets us nowhere. 

The slope off the peak of mount stupid may be steeper than illustrated, but the fact remains....WAY TOO MANY are content to pearch themselves on that peak and stay there. (It's awfully crowded up there)

[Velho]

Thanks @Richvee. Excited that you discovered this and brought it here. It is apropos for our vocation. Agree with @MadMax that the drop off isn't harsh enough. My day 3/4 of weeklong school was more like the Sarlacc than any freaking valley.

For those of us that teach and instruct, this is useful when we see those giving honest effort that are struggling. Showing them this lets them know they aren't alone. That it's normal and everyone that is self aware and cares go through self doubt.

It also helps us recognize Mt. Stupid summiteers that have planted their flag - so deal with them accordingly  - especially  self proclaimed umpires that "have it all figured out". Don't over index them as examples - even those at high levels (cough, Doug Harvey, cough).

You all inspired my quick attempt at an umpire version.

 

[Richvee]

“Plateau of sucking less”🤣👍

[conbo61]

I can't think of a better description of the "progress curve" for this vocation.

I also think that between the "Peak of Mount Stupid" and "Valley of Despair" is where we lose a lot of officials.  Only through patience, perseverance and recognizing that we need to improve do we have the opportunity to traverse the "Slope of Enlightenment."

Only to max out at "Sucking Less."

Why do we do this again?

Oh yeah.  For the kids.

[johnnyg08]

21 hours ago, conbo61 said:

Oh yeah.  For the kids.

Umm...yeah... 😇

[dumbdumb]

isn't there something (plateau) like the valley of the lost, or maybe worded land of there lost, for when it is time to try officiating (not coaching) another sport like wrestling, basketball, lacrosse, soccer, football, flag football, ice hockey, field hockey, volleyball, tennis, swimming, diving, water polo, track and field, gymnastics, bull riding, tiddle lee winks, marbles, etc, etc.

[Richvee]

10 minutes ago, dumbdumb said:

isn't there something (plateau) like the valley of the lost, or maybe worded land of there lost, for when it is time to try officiating (not coaching) another sport like wrestling, basketball, lacrosse, soccer, football, flag football, ice hockey, field hockey, volleyball, tennis, swimming, diving, water polo, track and field, gymnastics, bull riding, tiddle lee winks, marbles, etc, etc.

I think there's only a mount stupid for sports we think we know, like baseball and football. Then we fall off the cliff into the valley when we realize how much we didn't know. For starting in sports that we know we don't know the rules to, we're not on mount stupid. We start at the bottom left corner.  See @Velho's graph. But I think we go from that bottom left corner straight to the "Valley of I should coach instead" for sports we don't know.