Earned vs Unearned Runs

[Guest Ron H]

Runners on first and second, one by clean single and one by a walk. Batter sacrifice bunts towards first base. First baseman fields the ball cleanly and throws to third to get the lead runner. He overthrows the third baseman and the ball rolls into the LF corner. The first two runners score easily and the batter scores after a clean play at the plate.

Should the batter be credited with a sacrifice? Of the two runners on base plus the batter, which runs, if any, are earned versus unearned?

Thank you!

[Senor Azul]

Should the batter be credited with a sacrifice?

Here’s the easy part. If the official scorer judges that any runner would have been put out but for an error by the defense (in its attempt to retire any runner other than the batter-runner)then no sacrifice is credited to the batter. As you describe the situation, the runner at third should have been retired so no sacrifice.

2021 OBR rule 9.08 Sacrifices

The Official Scorer shall:

(c)  Not score a sacrifice bunt when any runner is put out attempting to advance one base on a bunt, or would have been put out, except for a fielding error, in which case the Official Scorer shall charge the batter with a time at bat; and

[Velho]

Assuming this happened with less than two outs and no previous errors in the inning, they are all earned (also assuming the action you describe was all a result of the one continuous play)… they are all earned runs. You need outs and errors to exceed 3 outs to start talking unearned runs.

[Senor Azul]

As for the question about earned runs, the short answer is—it depends on what happens next. Scorekeeping rule 9.16 tells us to “reconstruct the inning without the errors.” When runs score where errors are committed the scorer must, in a way, re-score the inning to determine which runs were earned and which were not earned.

9.16 Earned Runs and Runs Allowed

An earned run is a run for which a pitcher is held accountable. In determining earned runs, the Official Scorer shall reconstruct the inning without the errors (which exclude catcher’s interference) and passed balls, giving the benefit of the doubt always to the pitcher in determining which bases would have been reached by runners had there been errorless play. For the purpose of determining earned runs, an intentional base on balls, regardless of the circumstances, shall be construed in exactly the same manner as any other base on balls.

[Velho]

So apparently I'm making sh&t up. Shame on me.

Here is what looks like a good reference. https://baseballrulesacademy.com/official-rule/mlb/9-16-earned-runs-runs-allowed/

Following this, if, for example, the next two batters strike out, it seems it would be no earned runs. (I'm also now very curious about how software like GameChanger calculates earned runs).

[Guest Ron H]

Velho, interesting you mention GameChanger. We score using GameChanger and "reconstructed" the play twice. It came up with two earned runs both times so that's how we let it stand.

 

[Senor Azul]

Mr. Ron H, did you know that GameChanger has a website? It’s gc.com and if you visit the site you will find they have a link to their Support staff who quickly and courteously answer any and all questions posed by their users. You could present your question to them and get their expert opinions on your game situation and how it was scored.

You still haven’t given us a complete picture of what happened. Did the app credit the batter with a sacrifice or not? What happened after the three runs scored on the first baseman’s throwing error? And as Mr. Velho pointed out if the pitcher struck out the next three batters then all three runs that scored would be unearned since they would not have scored except for the error committed. If the offense managed to get some hits following the throwing error that would have scored the trailing two runners (who actually were the pitcher’s responsibility) then, yes, two of the runs would then be considered earned.

[Velho]

1 hour ago, Senor Azul said:

Did the app credit the batter with a sacrifice or not?

To clarify, it shouldn't be a sacrifice since they we've judged R2 should have been out at 3B. It should be a FC and an error.

 

I ran scenarios in GameChanger and can't sort out how they're calculating things. Let me clearly say: having learned the way earned/unearned is supposed to work, this is very difficult to code (if not impossible).

I tried:

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, K, K = 3 runs scored that (I think*) should be 0 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, K, HR, K = 4 runs scored that (I think*) should be 0 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, BB, BB,BB, Grand slam HR, K, K = 7 runs scored that (I think*) should be 6 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

 

Interesting and a great case to look at advanced analytics like FIP more than ERA?

* Because I've looked just dug into this so am an expert  

 

[Jimurray]

1 hour ago, Velho said:

To clarify, it shouldn't be a sacrifice since they we've judged R2 should have been out at 3B. It should be a FC and an error.

 

I ran scenarios in GameChanger and can't sort out how they're calculating things. Let me clearly say: having learned the way earned/unearned is supposed to work, this is very difficult to code (if not impossible).

I tried:

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, K, K = 3 runs scored that (I think*) should be 0 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, K, HR, K = 4 runs scored that (I think*) should be 0 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

- BB, BB, Sac bunt reach on FC with an error that scores all three runs, K, BB, BB,BB, Grand slam HR, K, K = 7 runs scored that (I think*) should be 6 earned runs. GC has 1 earned.

 

Interesting and a great case to look at advanced analytics like FIP more than ERA?

* Because I've looked just dug into this so am an expert  

 

Mods, we need a new forum. "Ask the umpire who didn't tear out his rulebook scorekeeping pages to use for cleaning the windows (see how I kept it clean here). Even though I don't give a sht, I admit to reading and being entertained.

[beerguy55]

On 4/23/2022 at 10:42 AM, Guest Ron H said:

Velho, interesting you mention GameChanger. We score using GameChanger and "reconstructed" the play twice. It came up with two earned runs both times so that's how we let it stand.

 

earned/unearned runs, in many cases, can't be determined until the inning is over (or at least until there are two outs)...you need to determine/guess/judge  how many runs would have scored in the inning if the error(s) had not occurred.

In the play in question - the first judgment is whether or not R2 would have been out on a clean throw.  Assuming that's the case, R2's run can't be earned....and, any run that scores after two outs can't be earned (there are scenarios around pitching changes, we won't get into right now...let's assume the same pitcher finished the inning)

Now, the question is what to do with R1 and B/R.   Whether or not those runs are earned is dictated by the action that follows (even if they scored on that play).

If the next two batters K then I'd say those runs shouldn't be earned...if the next batters all got hits, then in reconstructing the inning without errors, those runners would have scored anyway, so they're earned.

 

GC can be a little tricky, and it's been a few years since I used it, but I seem to recall that it's doing things in real time, and you have to tell it when runs are scored on the error...I doubt it's capable of reconstructing the inning after the fact for that purpose.

[Guest Guest Andy]

I don't know if this is true universally, but from what I have learned, when it comes to determining earned runs and unearned runs when there are errors involved, it also depends on whether it was an decisive error or an extra base error.

If it was a decisive error, meaning the runner/batter runner that the play was made on would have been put out without the error, can never be an earned run anymore.

If it was just an extra base error or if other runners also and only advance on a decisive error on another runner, then it depends on what will happen until the end of the inning. Right after the play, they will also be unearned, but if those runs would score on hits from the next batter(s), then they are earned.

It also depends on how many outs there were, or, to be more precise, how many defensepive opportunities there were (an out would of course be an defensive opportunity, but also an decisive error). After three defensive opportunities, no run can be earned anymore, as the defense/the pitcher would have been out of the inning by then without the decisive errors.

In case of the OP that would mean that R2 will be unearned if the scorer decides he would have been out with a proper throw. R1 and BR would be unearned right after the play. If there were 2 outs already at this point, the decisive error on R2 would have been the third defensive opportunity, so the runs from R1 and BR would also remain unearned, no matter of what would happen next. If there were less then 2 outs, it will depend on what happens next. If for example the next batter hits a double, R1 from the original play would have definitely scored here, making his run earned. If the run from the original BR would have also scored or not is a judgment call by the scorer. If he decides he wouldn't have scored, that run is still unearned. If now the next batter(s) strike out to end the inning, that run will stay unearned. If there's another hit or even a groundout or deep flyout and it's not the third out, then also that run will be earned.