A quick one!

[Lindsay]

When we reviewed this play at the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League, we credited Reyburn with a correct call. Here's why: When determining Quality of Correctness for balls/strikes calls, we consider a few dynamics. In regards to this particular sequence, there are two key considerations to keep in mind. Several months ago, we did a feature called "Ending the Game with Science" regarding the pitch f/x technology. I hope you enjoy sports science... and math.

Pitch f/x carries with it a margin of error of approximately one inch, per the manufacturer (this may explain why the pitch f/x graph might look "off"). One inch is 0.0833 feet. By adding and subtracting 0.0833 feet to the observed px [horizontal] value, we create a confidence interval (of 100%): we know the pitch definitely was somewhere within this range. Computing the confidence interval (CI) for Reyburn's strike three pitch yields a lower bound of 0.894 ft and an upper bound of 1.060 ft (Pitch f/x generated a px [horizontal] value of 0.977 ft). Per our calculation above, the range of "definite strike" includes values between -0.953 feet and 0.953 feet, where negative values refer to the graph's left side [right handed batter's side] and positive values refer to the graph's right side [left handed batter's side]. Subtracting 0.953 from 0.894 yields approx. absolute value 0.059. Subtracting 0.953 from 1.060 yields approx. absolute value 0.107. Using this information, we find exactly what percent chance the pitch was actually a strike and what percent chance the pitch was actually a ball. For this pitch, it comes out to 36% chance strike & 64% chance ball.

So if the margin of error is 1" that means it is +- 1" so it could just as well be marking the ball 1" too close as well as 1" too far.

Yes, exactly. That's why, with a px value of 0.977, we create an interval of 0.977+0.0833, (0.894,1.060), which you'll notice is a range of 0.166, or 2*0.083... 1.060 - 0.894 = .166... In other words, the CI always carries a range of two inches to account for the possibility of both 1" too close as well as 1" too far.

[dumbdumb]

But Gil

But what's with the strike zone lately, and things in general for that matter.

Where are all those over aggressive, arrogant, impatient, poor attitude, unwilling to listen (short fuse), trigger happy umpires lately. Your ejection totals for September are pathetic to say the least. You may have to shut the site down. Did they suddenly hire 68 new umpires off the street that have good listening skills, no egos, great attitudes, tails between their legs umpires that start perfect and get better? Did the regulars get perfect that fast. Are there no close plays anymore? Are the managers not sticking up for their players? What's going on?

DS guys know who they are as of last Saturday. LCS guys will know today. WS guys know after the last game of the DS. Will some umpire work consecutive WS for the first time since o I don't know maybe the 50's? That provision is allowed now in the most recent contract agreement. Will someone join Laz Diaz as the first umpire in modern times to go straight to a WS without first working an LCS? We shall see (I mean read) a day or two before each event.

[Lindsay]

What's going on?

Must have to do with Jim Joyce being out of the lineup... or Bill Hohn on the DL

We only have 15 ejections so far in September this season, with a projected 17-20 by month's end. Last year excluded (with 35 ejections in Sept, 2010), September is usually a down month for ejections, what with penant chases and wild cards getting closer to finalization. For instance, 2009 had a drop from 35 August to 20 September ejections. Assuming we even make it to 20 ejections this September '11, that would be 21 ejections fewer than August 2011's 41 mark. Recent arguments just don't seem as virulent as they were earlier in the season and the fuse is correspondingly longer. Most noticeably though, we've seen a pattern, one of two things: we've seen both more "blowout" games AND more offensive struggle-pitchers' duel type games this month than is typical in September, and ejections tend to be less frequent in already-decided games and in games where the offense is completely lackluster. I'm all for having the players and coaches worry about playing and coaching for their teams rather than trying to do the umpire's job.