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The Man in Blue

The COVID-19 Thread - Discussion & Cancellations

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2 minutes ago, JonnyCat said:

Yep, there is no fixing stupid. She's probably one of those persons hoarding toilet paper, too! :banghead:

That’s funny  I said EXACTLY that after she left. 

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5 hours ago, Rich Ives said:

Show the Spread.jpg

So, if you slow the spread to 1.5 R0 do you prevent 536,870,912 or it comes at a later date and we hope other mitigation efforts might take prior effect. Meanwhile, can you tolerate what happens to the world's economy if you slow the spread although the economy is already affected without much slowing effects.  Any economists or epidemiologists or Holiday Inn stayers among our members. I just remember that the plague killed off a bunch of people without society being able to do anything about it and the result was the Renaissance. 

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In the same vein... the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic almost certainly was a contributor to  the stockmarket crash of the late 1920s. And it really wasnt until the mid 1930s with FDR's New Deal and moving to a wartime economy of the late 30s and 1940s to get us out of the dumps we were in.

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13 hours ago, Jimurray said:

So, if you slow the spread to 1.5 R0 do you prevent 536,870,912 or it comes at a later date and we hope other mitigation efforts might take prior effect. Meanwhile, can you tolerate what happens to the world's economy if you slow the spread although the economy is already affected without much slowing effects.  Any economists or epidemiologists or Holiday Inn stayers among our members. I just remember that the plague killed off a bunch of people without society being able to do anything about it and the result was the Renaissance. 

OK Harry Lime.  And Genghis Khan opened up trade routes, don't forget.  What's his body count of 40 million dead compared to that?  I count as immunocompromised (Type I diabetic) and would just as soon live to see my child grow up, thanks. 

The point is, yes you will prevent some of the infections if you buy yourself time to figure out how (e.g. vaccine development.) And if the infection rate is low enough, you can keep hospitals from being overwhelmed--at some point, the death rate skyrockets because you don't have enough resources, human or mechanical (and that extends beyond viral cases into strokes and heart attacks that have to be triaged alongside it, plus mistakes by exhausted doctors.) One thing flattening the curve buys you time to do is produce more personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators, even adapting other industries to do so, if somebody would make that choice. (See "Defense Production Act"). More PPE would bend that transmission factor even more. As you can see from that chart, changing the rate of exponential growth leads to astounding differences in the integer number of cases.

In addition, I would posit that any effect to our economy by these preventative methods is far less than the disruptions that would be caused by millions of dead, mass panics, a failure of one or more states, and the odd hot war or two that might touch off as a result.

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Unfortunately, this is the point no one wants to go there. Who wins and who loses. Just watch those articles in sports the day after the NCAA picks are determined, except this situation is lost lives, not games.

Who do we send to the leper colony and just let die. If it has anything to do with any kind of intellectual ability or shear strength, I might as well go (volunteer) now and just wait to meet my maker.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/22/coronavirus-crisis-medical-ethics-guide-decisions-doctors-cant-help-all/2882738001/

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14 hours ago, Jimurray said:

So, if you slow the spread to 1.5 R0 do you prevent 536,870,912 or it comes at a later date and we hope other mitigation efforts might take prior effect. Meanwhile, can you tolerate what happens to the world's economy if you slow the spread although the economy is already affected without much slowing effects.  Any economists or epidemiologists or Holiday Inn stayers among our members. I just remember that the plague killed off a bunch of people without society being able to do anything about it and the result was the Renaissance. 

Does this mean that by day 50-60 in the above chart, if everyone in the above chart were people in the USA, which has 330 million, and everyone caught the disease in that timespan, it would basically be over with and  the percentages of all the different levels of severity played out. 264 (80%) million mild/moderate cases, 46.2 (14%) mil severe, and 16.6 (4.7%) mil critical, and 4.3 (1.3%) mil deaths, at our current rate.. If we moved to Chinas death rate at the moment of 4%, it would be 13.2 mil deaths for us. And this is just if rates can hold or get better, and everyone could get cared for appropriately in the US.

Apparently we can all sit down and watch the movie Contagion or go read the WIRED article with epidemiologist Larry Brilliant (lives up to his last name apparently) who worked on smallpox.

Like I said, if everyone were to get it, I might as well go volunteer for death row to make sure others who go critical can get the ventilators and care.

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I've been self-isolating for years and my family always called me anti-social. Now, everybody's doing it. Continuing to do what's unpopular even in the shadow of unrelenting ridicule and criticism is the sign of a real leader. It's a pity there's so few of us.:D

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My college schedule officially disappeared from Arbiter today; HS delayed until at least the 27th. April 27th.

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On 3/17/2020 at 11:27 PM, BigVic69 said:

TEXAS STAAR tests and EOC exams are cancelled.

Online course work is up and running with zoom meetings.

This may be status quo for a while fellows.

I made hand sanitizer at home, it worked out well.

The CDC says you need at least 60% alcohol to kill the germs, so here are the ratios:

70% Isopropyl Alcohol and Aloe Gel, 6:1 and mix well

90%+ Isopropyl Alcohol and Aloe Gel, 2:1 and mix well

You can add essential oils for the smell factor. These formulations are for spritzers and are not gels. Do not use the "drinking" alcohol to make this formula as it is "not" high enough in alcohol content to do any good except give your hand an expensive bath.  But if you do use them you will need at least 140 proof liquor.

Stay safe and be well

If you cannot find aloe vera, then any after sun lotion (it will have aloe and glycerol, etc.) can be used to mix your sanitizer spritzer formulation i gave above. There were many bottles at Walgreens of banana boat after sun (kind of expensive, but available). This Aloe addition is to keep your hand from drying out, by the way. You really do not need it in the spritzer, if yu ou cannot find Aloe or after sun lotion.
Stay safe.

20200322_191031.jpg

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6 hours ago, Rich Ives said:

Break the Chain.jpg

So SARS and MERS have recided because I don't know why. We want to slow the progression of Covid 19 by isolating until every current or future victim victim is 2 weeks cured or dead.  Does that mean the virus has no humans to replicate in and will die on inanimate surfaces after we are successful.

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4 hours ago, GerryB said:

My college schedule officially disappeared from Arbiter today; HS delayed until at least the 27th. April 27th.

Every couple of days I have an assignor calling to tell me he is cancelling games in Arbiter and rescheduling them ... Dude, just stop already.  Reschedule when we know there may be a schedule.  

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5 hours ago, The Man in Blue said:

Every couple of days I have an assignor calling to tell me he is cancelling games in Arbiter and rescheduling them ... Dude, just stop already.  Reschedule when we know there may be a schedule.  

Maybe that's his way of staying connected to other human being. This can all be overwhelming, especially for those who are accustomed to being amidst their people all the time. 

I am not the world's biggest social butterfly and I know that I am missing my colleagues, my students, my friends, my umpiring partners, and even the occasional stare from a batter on a marginal strike call.

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15 hours ago, Rich Ives said:

Break the Chain.jpg

Does not be able to vote remotely, give an incentive or non- incentive for our elected leaders to quarantine or self- isolate or get tested even though asymptomatic?

Or, do they just go around giving everyone that they get near anywhere around them the disease, so as to not miss a vote, that might cause a vote to go the way they do not want the issue to go.

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6 hours ago, dumbdumb said:

Does not be able to vote remotely, give an incentive or non- incentive for our elected leaders to quarantine or self- isolate or get tested even though asymptomatic?

Or, do they just go around giving everyone that they get near anywhere around them the disease, so as to not miss a vote, that might cause a vote to go the way they do not want the issue to go.

Right now, it means taking the chance.

I think they'll pass a temporary rule to allow Congress members to vote over the phone. It would still prevent them from speaking on the floor, but give them the ability to vote when needed. I don't think the three that have tested positive will be the only ones.

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13 hours ago, Kevin_K said:

Maybe that's his way of staying connected to other human being. This can all be overwhelming, especially for those who are accustomed to being amidst their people all the time. 

I am not the world's biggest social butterfly and I know that I am missing my colleagues, my students, my friends, my umpiring partners, and even the occasional stare from a batter on a marginal strike call.


Fair enough ... good point.

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8 hours ago, yawetag said:

Right now, it means taking the chance.

I think they'll pass a temporary rule to allow Congress members to vote over the phone. It would still prevent them from speaking on the floor, but give them the ability to vote when needed. I don't think the three that have tested positive will be the only ones.

You won’t get that passed until they can’t get a quorum. Right now the Dems wouldn’t go for it because now they almost have a majority in the Senate. Turn the numbers and the Republicans won’t vote for it. It’s a pitiful situation in Washington. 

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I know I said I'd only post that one post.  Looks like I lied.

As of tonight, the Washington Post "scoreboard" for this SH*#show - https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virus-resource-box-v3%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans  if following the end of the world fascinates you like it does me - shows more than 46,000 cases with 610 dead.  Unfortunately, I didn't write specific stats in that last post, which, just to underscore the horror-show nature of it all - was only *five* days ago.  And I guaran-damn-tee those numbers I just quoted are AT LEAST double of what they were on Wednesday.  And today, as I recall from the news, marks the first day we lost 100 dead in a single 24-hour period.  And the Surgeon General says this week is going to be bad.  (He may have said next week will be worse, but I didn't see his interview, so I'm not 100% on that.)

So imma say it again - this SH*# is, and has been, and is going to CONTINUE to be - worse than the flu.  Maybe WAY worse.

And if you're one of those "Freedom, F*#K yeah!" guys/gals, insisting on going to the beaches of the nation, playing basketball in the park over by my house (okay, that one's a little specific), or otherwise blowing a big old raspberry at the numerous doctors, epidemiologists, mathematicians, and other people WAY smarter than you or I - or you don't really think there's even a problem other than the media, or it's a political conspiracy to being down the Administration, or you're some millennial thinking you're gonna live forever - I'm BEGGING you:  take it seriously.  Save my life by being smart.  Save your parents, if you're lucky enough to still have them here.  Save people that are compromised in some way or another.

Maybe I'm largely preaching to the choir here, and most of you are down with what I'm saying.  But I'm really, REALLY frustrated with my fellow "human beings" out there right now, so I'm venting a bit.  And bear in mind, I'm a natural and enthusiastic cynic, yet Americans are REALLY exceeding my expectations in a lot of ways right now.  Don't wait for your governor, or the federal government, to tell you, or force you (best they can) to do the right and smart thing.  Make better choices.

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I'm completely on board with you @HokieUmphere in everything but one. Depending on which version of numbers line up. A majority of Millenials are in their 30s or so and have families. You are more complaining about the younger generation which would be Gen Z.

Beyond that. In a sign that we cant have nice things cause we cant handle being responsible people! Both Oregon and Washington have followed California and New York with their "stay home, stay safe" state orders. That's right people... we are even naming our state orders in a fashion that your kindergarten teacher would name an activity!

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1 minute ago, BT_Blue said:

I'm completely on board with you @HokieUmphere in everything but one. Depending on which version of numbers line up. A majority of Millenials are in their 30s or so and have families. You are more complaining about the younger generation which would be Gen Z.

I don't know, man - I can't track that crap, I got clouds to yell at.  Whoever the idiots are that I've seen lining the beaches in Florida and Cali are, that's who I'm pissed at.  It just seems so ridiculous and infuriating;  it's airborne, it's passable by close contact, and it's crazy contagious - so whatever generation they're in, they need to get their SH*# straight.

Beyond that. In a sign that we cant have nice things cause we cant handle being responsible people! Both Oregon and Washington have followed California and New York with their "stay home, stay safe" state orders. That's right people... we are even naming our state orders in a fashion that your kindergarten teacher would name an activity!

We just did that here in Texas.  Punch line?  Just here in San Antonio and Bexar County.  I think I've heard of the same thing up Dallas/Tarrant (?) County, Laredo, and some other places, too.  But for reasons on he seems to know, Gov Abbott simply refuses to issue that order for the entire state.  So the local jurisdictions have had to do it on their own.  Granted, it's still an honour system deal, even though there are some enforcement things that go with it.  It's kind of beyond me - don't know if he's up for re-election during my time here in Texas, but his dumb-ass isn't getting MY vote.

 

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6 hours ago, Richvee said:

You won’t get that passed until they can’t get a quorum. Right now the Dems wouldn’t go for it because now they almost have a majority in the Senate. Turn the numbers and the Republicans won’t vote for it. It’s a pitiful situation in Washington. 

Except that it's McConnell blocking bipartisan efforts on this, so...

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