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The COVID-19 Thread - Discussion & Cancellations

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3 hours ago, aaluck said:

What I have seen on various videos, including the one above, is a bucket of balls behind the mound.  Balls are sanitized to start the game, when they leave the field and between innings replaced into the bucket.  Umps do not touch them.

Umpires are not the problem.  We can EASILY stay 6 feet from everyone and with the balls in a bucket I would say you have a much better chance of getting it in the grocery store than umping a game like this.

How does one sanitize baseballs?

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5 hours ago, Kevin_K said:

How does one sanitize baseballs?

A better question is, why are we having to sanitize baseballs?

This "solution" is a non-solution, or better yet, an unwarranted solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

I'll put forward that if we are supposed to be sanitizing baseballs, then someone has to prove that baseballs are actually carrying the virus. Speculation ("Oh, but they could be.") isn't science.

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5 hours ago, MadMax said:

A better question is, why are we having to sanitize baseballs?

This "solution" is a non-solution, or better yet, an unwarranted solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

I'll put forward that if we are supposed to be sanitizing baseballs, then someone has to prove that baseballs are actually carrying the virus. Speculation ("Oh, but they could be.") isn't science.

Baseballs can and do carry viruses for a short period.  It's always been a problem.  Thankfully, American baseball games haven't had to worry about small pox or ebola.  And other viruses, like seasonal flu, don't typically carry the level of contagiousness and effectiveness this particular virus does, so we've never been concerned about it - but if you don't think people have gotten sick by passing around a baseball, or basketball, think again. The question is whether or not you want to risk this particular virus.  If one person on the field has the virus, and touches that ball, anyone else who touches that ball will likely contract the virus.

You want someone to prove the baseballs are actually carrying the virus - OK, then we'll test every baseball, every time they enter play - you willing to take $60 for a nine inning game that will take 94 hours to complete?    Or, better yet, we'll test every person who enters the baseball facility - and wait for the results before they can enter.   Be careful what you ask for.

The sanitation steps are in lieu of the steps it would be required to prove or disprove.  

Those are your choices - test test test...or clean, distance and mask....or roll the dice.

 

It's bad enough that people with symptoms are still going to go out and hang around other people - like that idiot everyone works with who is hacking up a lung and sneezing his brains out and still goes to the office to sit in cubicle land...effectively being patient zero for the annual office flu outbreak - it's worse that there will be people who can have this virus and have no symptoms whatsoever.

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Nebraska is opening up youth baseball and softball.
June 1 - practice can start
June 18 - games can start
Our state tournaments were pushed to the 2nd and 3rd weekends of July.
Both with restrictions, which can be read here:  https://www.dropbox.com/s/hn7gy2de7efaqhv/Baseball Softball Guidelines 5.11.20.pdf?dl=0

We're having a webex meeting with the 12U team I volunteer coach to review with the parents.

I have mixed feelings...no baseball for LL, HS, College, MLB, but it's ok for 4/5-14 kids to practice and have games?
There was nothing in the restrictions from the governor about umpires.

I'm waiting to hear from our local umpire organizations to see if they are requiring us regarding masks, gloves, calling games behind the plate/mound.

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18 hours ago, aaluck said:

What I have seen on various videos, including the one above, is a bucket of balls behind the mound.  Balls are sanitized to start the game, when they leave the field and between innings replaced into the bucket.  Umps do not touch them.

Umpires are not the problem.  We can EASILY stay 6 feet from everyone and with the balls in a bucket I would say you have a much better chance of getting it in the grocery store than umping a game like this.

 

The exposure concern isn't on the field during the game (IMO) ... just like beaches, the bigger concern is the congregating of hundreds or thousands people coming and going, using facilities (restroom or concession stand), and packing into surrounding businesses.

 

19 hours ago, kylehutson said:

I understand that. That's why I'll be watching news from the tourney in MO. 

We have our test case ... problem is we won't know anything for at least 10-14 days (likely longer).

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First Missouri now Nebraska!

The Governor of Nebraska has given permission for baseball and softball to start practices on June 1 and games on June 18.

Two down, 48 to go !!!  :)

 

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4 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

Baseballs can and do carry viruses for a short period.  It's always been a problem.  Thankfully, American baseball games haven't had to worry about small pox or ebola.  And other viruses, like seasonal flu, don't typically carry the level of contagiousness and effectiveness this particular virus does, so we've never been concerned about it - but if you don't think people have gotten sick by passing around a baseball, or basketball, think again. The question is whether or not you want to risk this particular virus.  If one person on the field has the virus, and touches that ball, anyone else who touches that ball will likely contract the virus.

You want someone to prove the baseballs are actually carrying the virus - OK, then we'll test every baseball, every time they enter play - you willing to take $60 for a nine inning game that will take 94 hours to complete?    Or, better yet, we'll test every person who enters the baseball facility - and wait for the results before they can enter.   Be careful what you ask for.

Got proof? Actual quantifiable, documented proof? I mean, we've been fed this line that we "can't do this", and "can't do that" because of numeric and scientific projections and simulations. There's no point in arguing those at this juncture. But you're making a rather big claim ("always been a problem") with no proof, history, or track record.

Yes. I don't think people have gotten sick from the passage of a baseball or basketball. The entire professional sports industry went into a scramble (almost a panic) when Magic Johnson announced he was HIV+. He promptly retired, primarily because, at that time, HIV was viewed as a debilitating, highly-communicable, "death sentence" disease (it was also a labeled a "gay" disease, which Johnson's truthful disclosure of how he contracted it dispelled that misperception). However, as has been documented, Johnson returned, not only to participate in the 1992 All-Star Game and the 1992 Olympics, but to return to the NBA (before ultimately retiring in 1996) and to lead a barnstorming team that traveled the world, globally, to play basketball.

Did a single professional or international basketball player, or coaching staff member, or arena staff member, contract HIV due to Magic Johnson's participation?? Did you see the NBA sanitizing basketballs? Did you see a crew following around Magic Johnson, mopping and sanitizing the floor behind him for every drop of sweat? No, understandably, the NBA (and other sports institutions) require medical / physical trainer staff to wear gloves, and that the presence of any blood has to be "dealt with" (I don't know the specific procedure, so I won't bother to quote it). Blood on uniforms now means "do this". Funny, Curt Schilling and his bloody sock was 2004, and I didn't see anybody halting the game, sanitizing the mound, and forcing him to replace any affected parts of his uniform.

Bollocks. Hogwash. Bull$hit. At the very least, you're using the word "contract" erroneously, or superlatively. This pandemic has already proven that there are people – documented numbers – who have been exposed to the virus, have had the virus present in serology tests, but have not experienced any symptoms or had been at any perceptible risks. Others have had relatively mildly symptoms. Exposure does not equate to contracting it, nor does contracting it mean a death sentence. Additionally, on that point of contracting this virus – you need a means of ingress, or channel. It's already been published that the virus doesn't ingress through healthy skin, or sweat, so physical contact alone is not what's doing it. It is transmitted by expectorate – in plain terms, sniffle juice, snot, and spit – from the mouth and nose. Yes, rightly so, we're directed to keep washing our hands, and avoid touching our faces, because what ends up on our faces, we breathe in. In this manner, this is no different than any other flu, cold, or respiratory disease. Sure, I'll agree with you (and everybody else) that this virus is particularly aggressive, and because of its novelty (to our immunity systems), our bodies have been demonstrating that the reaction to it has been equally damaging and in some cases, lethal. However, to say that, conclusively (which you are) we are going to contract the virus because of this? Patently inconclusive... and indeterminate.

No, but I'll tell you this... I'll take $60 to do a 2-hour game, without fear. If you want to impose that wear a mask, I will... but it's not going to make any difference (okay, after reconsidering it, my wearing, or not wearing of a mask might affect the catchers, or anyone else around me; so I'll grant you, I'd wear a mask for their piece of mind). I'll even be in my usual spot as Plate Umpire. I'm not going to "contract" (your word) the virus from the catcher(s), or from the pitcher(s), or from anyone else on that field. Why's that? Because I will be washing myself off / taking a shower ASAP after the close of the game, and... I'm going to restate this; I stated this waaaaaaaaay back in this very discussion thread, but got "blown off"... I'm 90% certain, and it's something that in the next 2-3 weeks will be confirmed via Antibody Test, I had it, back at the top of January.

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53 minutes ago, MadMax said:

Got proof? Actual quantifiable, documented proof? I mean, we've been fed this line that we "can't do this", and "can't do that" because of numeric and scientific projections and simulations. There's no point in arguing those at this juncture. But you're making a rather big claim ("always been a problem") with no proof, history, or track record.

Yes. I don't think people have gotten sick from the passage of a baseball or basketball. The entire professional sports industry went into a scramble (almost a panic) when Magic Johnson announced he was HIV+. He promptly retired, primarily because, at that time, HIV was viewed as a debilitating, highly-communicable, "death sentence" disease (it was also a labeled a "gay" disease, which Johnson's truthful disclosure of how he contracted it dispelled that misperception). However, as has been documented, Johnson returned, not only to participate in the 1992 All-Star Game and the 1992 Olympics, but to return to the NBA (before ultimately retiring in 1996) and to lead a barnstorming team that traveled the world, globally, to play basketball.

Did a single professional or international basketball player, or coaching staff member, or arena staff member, contract HIV due to Magic Johnson's participation?? Did you see the NBA sanitizing basketballs? Did you see a crew following around Magic Johnson, mopping and sanitizing the floor behind him for every drop of sweat? No, understandably, the NBA (and other sports institutions) require medical / physical trainer staff to wear gloves, and that the presence of any blood has to be "dealt with" (I don't know the specific procedure, so I won't bother to quote it). Blood on uniforms now means "do this". Funny, Curt Schilling and his bloody sock was 2004, and I didn't see anybody halting the game, sanitizing the mound, and forcing him to replace any affected parts of his uniform.

Bollocks. Hogwash. Bull$hit. At the very least, you're using the word "contract" erroneously, or superlatively. This pandemic has already proven that there are people – documented numbers – who have been exposed to the virus, have had the virus present in serology tests, but have not experienced any symptoms or had been at any perceptible risks. Others have had relatively mildly symptoms. Exposure does not equate to contracting it, nor does contracting it mean a death sentence. Additionally, on that point of contracting this virus – you need a means of ingress, or channel. It's already been published that the virus doesn't ingress through healthy skin, or sweat, so physical contact alone is not what's doing it. It is transmitted by expectorate – in plain terms, sniffle juice, snot, and spit – from the mouth and nose. Yes, rightly so, we're directed to keep washing our hands, and avoid touching our faces, because what ends up on our faces, we breathe in. In this manner, this is no different than any other flu, cold, or respiratory disease. Sure, I'll agree with you (and everybody else) that this virus is particularly aggressive, and because of its novelty (to our immunity systems), our bodies have been demonstrating that the reaction to it has been equally damaging and in some cases, lethal. However, to say that, conclusively (which you are) we are going to contract the virus because of this? Patently inconclusive... and indeterminate.

No, but I'll tell you this... I'll take $60 to do a 2-hour game, without fear. If you want to impose that wear a mask, I will... but it's not going to make any difference (okay, after reconsidering it, my wearing, or not wearing of a mask might affect the catchers, or anyone else around me; so I'll grant you, I'd wear a mask for their piece of mind). I'll even be in my usual spot as Plate Umpire. I'm not going to "contract" (your word) the virus from the catcher(s), or from the pitcher(s), or from anyone else on that field. Why's that? Because I will be washing myself off / taking a shower ASAP after the close of the game, and... I'm going to restate this; I stated this waaaaaaaaay back in this very discussion thread, but got "blown off"... I'm 90% certain, and it's something that in the next 2-3 weeks will be confirmed via Antibody Test, I had it, back at the top of January.

A lot of words not to address what was stated, which was the calculus of exposure.

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2 hours ago, MadMax said:

Got proof? Actual quantifiable, documented proof? I mean, we've been fed this line that we "can't do this", and "can't do that" because of numeric and scientific projections and simulations. There's no point in arguing those at this juncture. But you're making a rather big claim ("always been a problem") with no proof, history, or track record.

C'mon @MadMax, you have to be consistent. Here you ask for documented proof and in another forum you say:

"According to the manual, NFHS still grants the PU the right to decline an appeal request (_IMO_, this is one of the symptoms of the "god complex" for Fed PU's). However, the majority of leadership in High School Umpiring Associations / Groups, and in Directors of Tournaments that use NFHS rules strongly recommend (or, direct) that PU's should just grant any and all check swing appeal requests."

While I would presume that you have experience with some, you likely do not have proof that a majority teach this. I know of at least two HS associations in NJ that do not. While I do not embrace the philosophy, many of the umpires I work with receive their only training from the "Why change?" crews leading their association's "training" committees. 

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Who has the burden of proof in the balance between safety, the risk of death and economics? If (1) people are being infected with the coronavirus; (2) some of them die because of their illness; (3) there is still so much that neither the experts nor the general public know about how the virus operates and spreads and how deeply it affects the human body; and (4) we do not have a cure or vaccine, or adequate testing and tracking capabilities, the burden of proof is on those who want to "open up and get back to normal." "Actual quantifiable, documented proof" that is safe to the general public to open up.

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4 minutes ago, LRZ said:

Who has the burden of proof in the balance between safety, the risk of death and economics? If (1) people are being infected with the coronavirus; (2) some of them die because of their illness; (3) there is still so much that neither the experts nor the general public know about how the virus operates and spreads and how deeply it affects the human body; and (4) we do not have a cure or vaccine, or adequate testing and tracking capabilities, the burden of proof is on those who want to "open up and get back to normal." "Actual quantifiable, documented proof" that is safe to the general public to open up.

For 3 and 4, ... I believe we're all being kept in the dark about what they all know and don't know.   AND ... we are learning lately that all of the models (whatever you want to call them) were way off.   Problem is, and to counterpoint your questions (which are good by the way) .... is this 'dangerous' ...YES ....but we don't have proof of how dangerous this all is in the first place, and we won't for quite some time now until the proper testing can tell us.   The problem is ...we'll never be normal again.   But we do have to try and we do have to get back to work and function like a country should.   The burden of proof is on EVERYONE to open back up.   It's up to all of the experts to come together and figure this $h1t out!

There's no one on this board that doesn't want things to start getting back to normal.  If you're disagreeing with that, .... you're lying. (I'm saying this respectfully and not just to @LRZ)

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As much as I dislike quoting Donald Rumsfeld, here goes: "There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know."

Until we know more about what we don't know we don't know (!!!), I would err on the side of caution. This is a judgment call, based on my balance between safety and risk; others on this forum have come down with different judgments. 

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22 minutes ago, LRZ said:

As much as I dislike quoting Donald Rumsfeld, here goes: "There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know."

Until we know more about what we don't know we don't know (!!!), I would err on the side of caution. This is a judgment call, based on my balance between safety and risk; others on this forum have come down with different judgments. 

This.

But here's what we *do* know.

1) This isn't normal, seasonal flu. It is deadlier and more easily spread.

2) Neither is this the black death, where 1/3 to 1/2 of some populations were wiped out.

3) "Normal" will change (but we don't know how much). Businesses are discovering that not everybody needs to be in the office. Giving each other a little more room in the store isles isn't much of an inconvenience. I don't live in a high population density area, but from my visits, I expect that public transportation is much more difficult to space people out, since that's really their model.

4) We simply can't keep the current structure of the economy for much longer and prevent people from working without pay. I have some radical political ideas pre-dating this crisis by a couple of years (with which I don't want to derail this conversation), which would have been quite useful now. Also, I made a prediction about 2 weeks into the stay-at-home orders and it was becoming obvious this wasn't just "a couple of weeks out of the office". I said by June 1 we would have to have hospitals overwhelmed or we would have rioting in the streets. I was off by about half (at least in some places - if this continues, you'll see more).

5) One size does not fit all. My area of rural Kansas should have a different response from NYC. But even at that, NYC may need to look different than LA, which will need to look different than Houston. Even on a personal level, we have different risks. I can feel comfortable taking a risk of working a game (and just knowing that may mean I will have to avoid contact with some extended family for a few weeks after), whereas somebody else who is living with a high-risk individual may not be comfortable taking a risk on that same exact game, even with more precautions.

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3 hours ago, LRZ said:

the burden of proof is on those who want to "open up and get back to normal." "Actual quantifiable, documented proof" that is safe to the general public to open up.

I’m sorry, but I’m gonna have to disagree with you there. If the government wants to come in and shut down someone’s livelihood, then the burden of proof is on them. I’d say they have to prove the shut down is 100% necessary or pay for all of the lost income (which they are not going to do). They have not proved the necessity. They gave us models and projections that showed we needed to shutdown; none of those projections have even been close. Further, please don’t say they were wrong because we did such a good job and social distancing, because 1. several people on this thread have pointed out that we haven’t and 2. those models accounted for social distancing. So if the government wants to shut down businesses then they should be able to show beyond reasonable doubt why it is essential or pay for it in full. 

 

1 hour ago, LRZ said:

Until we know more about what we don't know we don't know (!!!), I would err on the side of caution. This is a judgment call, based on my balance between safety and risk; others on this forum have come down with different judgments. 

 I can understand this however. I get that there are things no one has even thought about yet. But for some people it is worth the risk despite the unknown. Last night my wife and I went to a local ice cream shop that we really love. They have a flavor that my wife is crazy about so we’ve been regulars for the last few years. Until last night we had never met the owner. He’s always employed a handful of college students to run the shop but now his only employees are himself, his wife and his daughter. I’m just saying, for people that can work from home, it’s great. But for others this is getting really bad financially. 

CBS posted this a few days ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/ It’s hurting lost of people to stay shut down. Whether it’s working extra hours or none at all. To your point, there are going to be unknown, unknown consequences of staying shut down. 

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We're just in a new and uncharted area... Things to us seem very fluid and ever-changing; but that's just because we just don't know and are learning as we go. 

There is no answer which can absolutely answer each and every concern and there are so many different variables. Yes, the economy is hurting and record high unemployment and this needs to be addressed, but we also have to balance public safety as well as personal freedoms and liberty.  

Some cities, states and countries have done better than others, but they too have any number of variables: population density, resources, social and cultural customs/norms. And we can criticize or admire what ever political leader we believe is doing/not doing well but that doesn't help anything/ anyone.

Add to all of this which is my big thing; personal responsibility. Each person collectively doing their individual part through hygiene, social distancing, patience, kindness and adaptability.

Now were at a point where governments are opening up previously closed business sectors. Does this mean we all must rush out to see a movie or go to a concert or out to eat? No, we don't have to and if you don't feel comfortable doing so when it's allowed in your area, then it's your choice to continue to refrain from these things until you individually feel it's right for you. 

But either way, we're not out of the woods yet. We have to stay vigilant and be personally responsible. We also have to remain adaptable; will we see a second wave this fall? Will the virus mutate? Will there be a vaccine? Can people get this multiple times like a cold or is it one and done like chickenpox? We just don't know. 

 

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  • Scheduled Date for "Resumption of Play." (Plan of Action #2) We moved our proposed season start date to June 1st for "resumption of play." A franchised league should seek guidance from their governor's office, local governing authority and public health officials before starting youth baseball activities.

This was sent from Dixie Baseball today. So, apparently they are starting baseball June 1. The problem we have here is that our mayor still has the parks shut down for now--nowhere to play.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out....

Will they have a concessions stand--thats how they make enough to pay us? Will they limit the number of spectators? Will they only request one ump to do the whole field to save money?

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36 minutes ago, The Short Umpire said:

I’m sorry, but I’m gonna have to disagree with you there.

Opinions, everyone has 'em. I do, you do, we all do. In 50 years, we may know whose opinion was right and whose wrong.

37 minutes ago, The Short Umpire said:

100% necessary

How do you turn the variables of complex human existence into a number, any number, let alone 100%?

I'll add another opinion: I suspect some of the predictions are wrong because they were based on "what we know." What we don't know and what we don't know we don't know can't be calculated, or calculated with accuracy. But we do know people get sick, very sick, and some die, and that social distancing, among several other measures, mitigates. That's proof enough for me.

2 hours ago, kylehutson said:

One size does not fit all.

I can go with that, although more on a community-level than the personal. As has been pointed out, someone can be asymptomatic yet infectious. The problem is not the responsible people, like you, kylehutson, but the multitudes of reckless, foolish, inconsiderate yahoos.

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We're just in a new and uncharted area... Things to us seem very fluid and ever-changing; but that's just because we just don't know and are learning as we go. 

There is no answer which can absolutely answer each and every concern and there are so many different variables. Yes, the economy is hurting and record high unemployment and this needs to be addressed, but we also have to balance public safety. 

Some cities, states and countries have done better than others, but they too have any number of variables: population density, resources, social and cultural customs/norms. And we can criticize or admire what ever political leader we believe is doing/not doing well but that doesn't help anything/ anyone.

Add to all of this which is my big thing; personal responsibility. Each person collectively doing their individual part through hygiene, social distancing, patience, kindness and adaptability.

Now were at a point where governments are opening up previously closed business sectors. Does this mean we all must rush out to see a movie or go to a concert or out to eat? No, we don't have to and if you don't feel comfortable doing so when it's allowed in your area, then it's your choice to continue to refrain from these things until you individually feel it's right for you. 

But either way, we're not out of the woods yet. We have to stay vigilant and be personally responsible. We also have to remain adaptable; will we see a second wave this fall? Will the virus mutate? Will there be a vaccine? Can people get this multiple times like a cold or is it one and done like chickenpox? We just don't know. 

 

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16 hours ago, MadMax said:

Got proof? Actual quantifiable, documented proof? I mean, we've been fed this line that we "can't do this", and "can't do that" because of numeric and scientific projections and simulations. There's no point in arguing those at this juncture. But you're making a rather big claim ("always been a problem") with no proof, history, or track record.

Yes. I don't think people have gotten sick from the passage of a baseball or basketball. The entire professional sports industry went into a scramble (almost a panic) when Magic Johnson announced he was HIV+. He promptly retired, primarily because, at that time, HIV was viewed as a debilitating, highly-communicable, "death sentence" disease (it was also a labeled a "gay" disease, which Johnson's truthful disclosure of how he contracted it dispelled that misperception). However, as has been documented, Johnson returned, not only to participate in the 1992 All-Star Game and the 1992 Olympics, but to return to the NBA (before ultimately retiring in 1996) and to lead a barnstorming team that traveled the world, globally, to play basketball.

Did a single professional or international basketball player, or coaching staff member, or arena staff member, contract HIV due to Magic Johnson's participation?? Did you see the NBA sanitizing basketballs? Did you see a crew following around Magic Johnson, mopping and sanitizing the floor behind him for every drop of sweat? No, understandably, the NBA (and other sports institutions) require medical / physical trainer staff to wear gloves, and that the presence of any blood has to be "dealt with" (I don't know the specific procedure, so I won't bother to quote it). Blood on uniforms now means "do this". Funny, Curt Schilling and his bloody sock was 2004, and I didn't see anybody halting the game, sanitizing the mound, and forcing him to replace any affected parts of his uniform.

I don't recall mentioning HIV.  This isn't HIV.   I don't need to have sex with you or share a needle with you to get coronavirus from you.  Frankly, the biggest question at the time of Johnson's retirement, that wasn't really demonstrably known or understood, was whether or not HIV could be submitted via a cut...if he and another player got cut, like while banging heads, could the disease be transmitted.  Once that was dispelled the (educated) world moved on.

16 hours ago, MadMax said:

This pandemic has already proven that there are people – documented numbers – who have been exposed to the virus, have had the virus present in serology tests, but have not experienced any symptoms or had been at any perceptible risks. Others have had relatively mildly symptoms. Exposure does not equate to contracting it, nor does contracting it mean a death sentence

The problem is, those people who end up being asymptomatic still carry the virus, and can still pass the virus on to others....unlike most viruses where if you don't have symptoms you're not contagious...this one doesn't seem to follow that model - it's the primary reason this one needs to be treated differently.   It would be easy if we just told anyone displaying symptoms to stay home.

The asymptomatic numbers are a little deceptive too - though there is plenty of data on people who were asymptomatic at the time it was discovered they had the virus, there's less data on how many of them went on to develop symptoms.  As well, we are discovering a range of previously unknown symptoms that vary across different people.  So it's possible these people did have symptoms (after all, you have a virus and your body is going to fight it), but didn't know it (eg. a rash that isn't seen or noticed).

And yes, the vast majority of people who get COVID will survive...so what?  That's true for almost all viruses...including Bubonic Plague.  The numbers look like this one will come in around 0.5 to 1% fatality rate (with incredibly low numbers for children, and incredibly high numbers for the old).  That is 5 to 10 times deadlier than seasonal flu.   More importantly is the r-0....seasonal flu is about one...current estimates for COVID sit about 5 or 6....puts it on par with small pox for contagiousness.   Even if it ends up coming in at the same mortality rate of the flu, it's contagiousness makes it far more dangerous - combined with how many people end up needing hospitalization to survive, makes it problematic to say the least.

Tie that all with the fact that there is no vaccine and no herd immunity - two things that make the seasonal flu far less deadly than it could be.   So, yes, the likelihood is if you are exposed to this thing, you will contract it, and you will pass it on to others.  Even if the odds are tremendous you'll survive (unless you're over 75).

So, I hope you had it in January, for your sake - it means you're probably immune for a few years and will be able to get along until the vaccine comes...the downside is for a two week period in January you passed it along to an unknown number of people.  The upside, you helped move the community towards herd immunity.   Though a few would have died along the way.  The likelihood is you didn't - you probably had one of the many other coronaviruses  or flu bugs, that are present at any given time.  But I hope you're right.

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1 hour ago, LRZ said:

As has been pointed out, someone can be asymptomatic yet infectious. The problem is not the responsible people, like you, kylehutson, but the multitudes of reckless, foolish, inconsiderate yahoos.

Yet this is the dilemma. Ill take my son for example. 20, strong as an ox. Works at Sam's Club and Door Dash (since there is no umping to do). He wears a mask, washes hands constantly, has a pocket size bottle of hand sanitizer with him and another big jug in his truck. So, I believe he is being as responsible as humanly possible. BUT, he could be infected and asymptomatic AND give it to someone else--including me, my wife or daughter. This is the problem with this whole thing. We can all be as safe as possible (or responsible as you correctly state) and still not prevent the spread.

This is why I take such exception with those that say if you pass it to someone else (despite taking every precaution humanly possible) it is your fault if they get sick and die.

I won't live in fear. I have made changes, huge changes, to my life, but I still go to shop, work at the office and conduct daily activities. And yes, I will umpire baseball and football this year if there are any games to ump.

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1 hour ago, aaluck said:

Yet this is the dilemma. Ill take my son for example. 20, strong as an ox. Works at Sam's Club and Door Dash (since there is no umping to do). He wears a mask, washes hands constantly, has a pocket size bottle of hand sanitizer with him and another big jug in his truck. So, I believe he is being as responsible as humanly possible. BUT, he could be infected and asymptomatic AND give it to someone else--including me, my wife or daughter. This is the problem with this whole thing. We can all be as safe as possible (or responsible as you correctly state) and still not prevent the spread.

This is why I take such exception with those that say if you pass it to someone else (despite taking every precaution humanly possible) it is your fault if they get sick and die.

I won't live in fear. I have made changes, huge changes, to my life, but I still go to shop, work at the office and conduct daily activities. And yes, I will umpire baseball and football this year if there are any games to ump.

It still is fault, even without intent, negligence, or malice.

You also say it as if fear is misplaced. It is definitely not.

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22 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

And yes, the vast majority of people who get COVID will survive...so what?  That's true for almost all viruses...including Bubonic Plague.  The numbers look like this one will come in around 0.5 to 1% fatality rate (with incredibly low numbers for children, and incredibly high numbers for the old).  That is 5 to 10 times deadlier than seasonal flu.   More importantly is the r-0....seasonal flu is about one...current estimates for COVID sit about 5 or 6....puts it on par with small pox for contagiousness.   Even if it ends up coming in at the same mortality rate of the flu, it's contagiousness makes it far more dangerous - combined with how many people end up needing hospitalization to survive, makes it problematic to say the least.

 

Bubonic plague is spread by a bacteria.

The primary method of transmission was through the regurgitation of blood into a host from an infected flea whose digestive system would become blocked as a result of the bacteria. Pneumococcal plague, also caused by a bacteria, is  more virulent and is spread through airborne droplets.

Both can be treated with antibiotics, unlike a virus.

My day job is being a history teacher. I wrote a research paper on plagues as an undergrad. It was a fascinating, but morbid,  topic 

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2 hours ago, Kevin_K said:

Bubonic plague is spread by a bacteria.

The primary method of transmission was through the regurgitation of blood into a host from an infected flea whose digestive system would become blocked as a result of the bacteria. Pneumococcal plague, also caused by a bacteria, is  more virulent and is spread through airborne droplets.

Both can be treated with antibiotics, unlike a virus.

My day job is being a history teacher. I wrote a research paper on plagues as an undergrad. It was a fascinating, but morbid,  topic 

good catch...was thinking pandemic and completely forgot that it wasn't viral.

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