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The Man in Blue

The COVID-19 Thread - Discussion & Cancellations

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14 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

The most disturbing element of this data is most experts estimate that only 1-5% of all Americans have been infected...and most of them agree its more likely 1 than 5.  It's quite possible the chaos we're seeing today is the result of only 1% of Americans getting the virus.   So, 95-99% of Americans haven't caught it yet, and don't have anti-bodies.

That shouldn't really be a surprise.  The population is about 328m.  1% is 3.3m.  Confirmed cases  (I assume that means "tested positive") is about 500k.  IF one in seven people gets tested (and we know lots who *probably* have it don't get tested because it doesn't change the treatment) that means about 3.5m *probably* have it -- or 1%.

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I'm a numbers guy, and I can assure that there is NO WAY we can effectively extrapolate out the death rate from the numbers we have in this country and world right now:

1) testing is a complete mess, and will probably be for a long time, at least in this country. Random samples over the population in locations, counties, cities and states are NOT being performed, and may not even be in the planning stage. So the numbers are skewed to testing only people who A) have more than one symptom B) have some sort of medical risk, like pre-existing conditions, where knowing if you have it as early as possible may save your life C) are in an area that actually has enough test kits to hit all these "most likely" people

2) In my experience here in NY,  with friends and coworkers who have symptoms and are stuck at home suffering, and going on these EMS calls, so many people have had more than one symptom and have been TURNED down for testing. Also, if one family member has tested positive, the entire family stuck in the same house is told to quarantine, but they ARE NOT tested, even when they wind up with more than one symptom themselves (assume you all have it, they are told).

There are infection transmission rate (how contagious) versus mortality rate (how deadly) charts available off of reputable sights that compare COVID-19 versus other epidemic/pandemic diseases. Currently, COVID is less deadly than ebola, MERS, the Spanish Flu, and even Swine FLU, but more contagious. However, with the current numbers it is no where near as contagious as Measles or chicken pox or small pox.

My small, not intelligent, not scientific, feel is that if they ever get REAL data going in the USA on this contagion (which will only be via a combo of direct testing and anti-body testing in a scientific and massive scale), that it may wind up that MANY more people have it, had it, or at least were exposed to it and beat it unknowingly by creating antibodies and keeping themselves symptom free. If my hunches are close to reality, then the death rate will drop dramatically, and if it drops below 1%, then it would be in the realm of a bad flu season. Now, that also means it proves much more contagious than your bad flu, which would STILL mean that protections MUST be in place to protect vulnerable populations for years to come, or at least until vaccines are commonly available.

This is what was needed to be done with vulnerable populations against pneumonia going back a few decades (my Mom used to always tell us to "wear another layer" or"get out or your wet clothes" or come in now, its too cold" because we would "catch pneumonia") until viable antibodies and, now, viable vaccines, are available. Perhaps there will be heavy restrictions that directly affect/protect the vulnerable populations for many months/years to come, which may mean some areas re-closed down after opening up, etc..

So, yes, I think some things will change: more working from home, the ability to manage remote workers effectively and viably, hopefully less "required travel" for work, wearing masks and coverings in public, especially when you have a cough or sneeze or runny nose (in Korea, where I travel often, it is considered rude to sneeze or cough in public and not have a face covering - this has been the norm there since SARS in 2009??? ish). Maybe post game handshakes are eliminated for a few seasons. I can see many people not attending large concerts and sporting events for a long time, so revenues would be down for those types of businesses. I can see many people, especially older people, not using air transportation for a long time to avoid the cramping at airports and in airplanes.

Maybe soon some other country or countries will initiate the proper testing regimen first and be able to try out easing restrictions and focusing resources. Then hopefully we can learn from them and follow their lead to get back earlier than the pace we are following now..

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3 hours ago, The Man in Blue said:


Whoa, whoa, whoa ... you can time that but you can’t figure out the 20 seconds to deliver a pitch or 60 seconds between innings?!  
 

:sarcasm:
 

(Not YOU, @umpstu ... generic “you” in a poor attempt at dark humor.)

I just use my metrics.

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According to the assigner, our regional youth summer league just canceled the entire season. No word yet about Legion, he said.

On the up side, my cycling mileage will increase.

Minutes later, an update: Legion has canceled. No baseball for me this year.

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Alabama--   Our Dixie youth just sent an email saying they were going to reevaluate May 15 as to the Majors (16-18) and Boys (14-16)--which doesn't start until after HS baseball anyway.  No mention of youth (14-under) so I'm assuming they are not playing that. 

Also, no mention of American Legion as of today.

MISERY LOVES COMPANY!!!

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“Stay the blazes home” - Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil

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As of Friday, Texas is now done - not just school, but all championships and spring sports.

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Here in PA, some officials are likely facing a conundrum concerning clearances. Assuming things are pretty much back to normal by next spring's school season, this might not be an issue for baseball, but there may well be problems for fall and possibly winter sports officials.
 
In PA, clearances became mandatory about five years ago, and are good for five years, so many officials must now renew them. Two of them can be done on-line (although I do not know whether the coronavirus affects the agencies' ability to respond). Even assuming that these two clearances can be renewed, the offices where the third--fingerprints for FBI review, which obviously must be done in person--are closed.

Consequently, some officials will probably not have current clearances, and PIAA has informed us that it is powerless to alter or modify this statutory requirement.

PA schools are closed for the year and school sports canceled; summer sports (e.g., American Legion baseball, summer basketball) have either been canceled or are in doubt, so that gives officials another several months to renew their clearances. But if offices and agencies don't resume something close to normal business before the fall school seasons, where does that leave officials? And where does that leave assigners, schools and leagues if there is a resulting shortage of qualified officials?
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7 hours ago, LRZ said:

And where does that leave assigners, schools and leagues if there is a resulting shortage of qualified officials?

Appreciative?

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27 minutes ago, Aging_Arbiter said:

Appreciative?

Yeah, right, I doubt it.

Did you see the Referee.com article (I think it was), in which a PIAA official opined that the pandemic may bring people into officiating. His dubious reasoning? People who have lost their jobs or significant income will be looking to compensate for  those losses. He didn't address the clearances issue.

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2 hours ago, LRZ said:

Yeah, right, I doubt it.

Did you see the Referee.com article (I think it was), in which a PIAA official opined that the pandemic may bring people into officiating. His dubious reasoning? People who have lost their jobs or significant income will be looking to compensate for  those losses. He didn't address the clearances issue.

I hear this all the time...does anyone have any data to indicate that people do this in economic downturns? The barriers to entry can be more substantial to someone with little income than someone else.

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1 hour ago, Matt said:

I hear this all the time...does anyone have any data to indicate that people do this in economic downturns? The barriers to entry can be more substantial to someone with little income than someone else.

No numbers, but yesterday, my assignor held a zoom meeting with a bunch of umpires. He said he thought we'd see an uptick, citing a large increase in umpires following the 2008 financial crisis.

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16 hours ago, LRZ said:

Yeah, right, I doubt it.

Did you see the Referee.com article (I think it was), in which a PIAA official opined that the pandemic may bring people into officiating. His dubious reasoning? People who have lost their jobs or significant income will be looking to compensate for  those losses. He didn't address the clearances issue.

 

13 hours ago, Matt said:

I hear this all the time...does anyone have any data to indicate that people do this in economic downturns? The barriers to entry can be more substantial to someone with little income than someone else.

If you're just trying to get money coming into your household it would be easier, and more lucrative, to get a job stocking shelves at a grocery store  (especially right this exact moment)....delivery from restaurants and grocery stores is another if you have a vehicle (which you almost always need if you want to umpire)...

In an economic downturn, if your motive is to simply get any job you can get to ensure you're bringing in any kind of income, when it comes to measuring earning potential combined with the requirements to obtain the job, amateur sports officiating would be ranked about 187th on your list of options...one spot below home burglary. 

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3 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

If you're just trying to get money coming into your household it would be easier, and more lucrative, to get a job stocking shelves at a grocery store  (especially right this exact moment)....delivery from restaurants and grocery stores is another if you have a vehicle (which you almost always need if you want to umpire)...

Both of these are great options today, but stocking is typically a night-shift gig and delivery puts a lot more mileage on your car than driving to a school and back home.

You're right, though. Gig jobs weren't a thing 10 years ago, unless you include pizza or chinese food delivery. Today, there are many ways to work your own hours and make some money in doing so - maybe not the same amount per hour (officiating is 2-3 hours in a day), but maybe the same per day.

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Just to make it official ... Illinois (IHSA) pulled the plug yesterday.

One of my summer programs sent a message out this morning saying they are cancelling all tournaments in May.

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South Carolina pulled the plug yesterday during a live Zoom session. The staggering number of "You all should be ashamed!" and similar posts severely questioned my hope in society.

One mother even suggested allowing the sports to continue, saying the players could practice distancing. In my thinking of every sport of every season, tennis was the only one I could imagine even being done with distancing remaining a possibility.

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4 minutes ago, yawetag said:

South Carolina pulled the plug yesterday during a live Zoom session. The staggering number of "You all should be ashamed!" and similar posts severely questioned my hope in society.

One mother even suggested allowing the sports to continue, saying the players could practice distancing. In my thinking of every sport of every season, tennis was the only one I could imagine even being done with distancing remaining a possibility.

That, or golf. Or playing football with a PAC-10 defense. 

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On 4/10/2020 at 9:01 AM, Kevin_K said:

All of this back and forth and speculation about how many will get infected and why we should or shouldn't be back on the field strikes me (pun intended) as having many parallels to the conversations and squawking that occurs outside the fence when fans disagree or agree with a call or play based on a baseball rule they were unfamiliar with.

Many of us have offered our views on the silly comments we have heard coming from their relatively uninformed perspectives and chuckled or become incensed while trying to keep the game moving towards its end.

Ironic? 

Just saying is all.

 

Difference in this situation is, I don't think the people on either side of the fence truly know any the "rules".  That includes all of us, the politicians, and the "experts". 

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Every time I see that, I think the umpire has turned into some kind of half man, half mouse.

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The forum gear hounds want to know if that's a Carlucci chest protector.

The forum authoritarians call him a Smitty because he is wearing his cap backwards.

(In case anyone gets upset, I jest.)

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