The COVID-19 Thread - Discussion & Cancellations

[Thunderheads]

19 minutes ago, yawetag said:

If you can show 70,000 people so far have committed suicide since the outbreak, then I'll agree we're on the same moral high-ground.

We could easily move this discussion to one where we have a society and government that takes care of its people, so that losing a job doesn't lead someone to think suicide is the only answer. You know, free mental health (OH NO!) or temporary unemployment that actually keeps someone afloat (THE NERVE!), or maybe even a social policy that allows someone the means to keep their family healthy, fed, and housed while they can't work (COMMUNISM!!!).

There's no irony that the vast majority of the "OPEN OUR STATES!" people are the same ones that think any of those three are bad ideas.

THIS RESPONSE IS TO EVERYONE (not just Andrew)

Be careful here.  This is getting dangerously close to a Democrat/Republican discussion and while some of this thread can be considered a political discussion, .......we've all kept it respectful and for the most part have stayed away from the "party line" talk in general.   

[beerguy55]

1 hour ago, Thunderheads said:

THIS RESPONSE IS TO EVERYONE (not just Andrew)

Be careful here.  This is getting dangerously close to a Democrat/Republican discussion and while some of this thread can be considered a political discussion, .......we've all kept it respectful and for the most part have stayed away from the "party line" talk in general.   

Well, as a Canadian, I have no horse in that race...I will simply say "he's not wrong".

But it's also an oversimplification.

Make no mistake...this is an issue of math, and nothing more.  No different than Ford's decision to not recall the Pinto - it was going to cost more to fix the vehicles than pay out the death lawsuits.

When a state/province/country announces an easing of restrictions, it is simply a declaration that they believe there's room in the hospital for the inevitable illnesses and deaths.   

That's it, that's all.

It is a decision to kill more people (as opposed to hunkering down everyone until we find a vaccine)...and it's a simple exercise of comparing the right side of the sheet to the left side.

We are looking to find the balance between restarting the economy, and keeping a viable health care system, and ACCEPT there will be a life cost in that balance.  No politician in his right mind will say that...but that is exactly what Sweden has done (5x the death rate of Finland and Norway, but their health care system is handling it)...and Britain tried, and had to clamp down when the illness/deaths accelerated too fast.  And that is what every state/province is doing in their respective decisions to loosen up, and how far to loosen up.

Long-term...hopefully this teaches some people, and elected officials, that a safety net might be an appropriate practice (how big would be the discussion)...on a personal level, get away from the practice of spending every last dime you have, and more, and save  (and, yes, that includes me - when I was making $20k a year I was spending 30...when I was making $100k a year I was spending 150...until I got my head out of my ass  (I can survive six months without a job...if I hadn't been an idiot in my 20's and 30's I'd be able to survive six years)...and as a government, maybe we do have to move left a little more, so situations like this don't force people to choose between their livelihoods and their lives.

I have no issue with reopening in a controlled fashion, so we can quickly close down again if any local health authority gets overwhelmed.

What I take issue with are the ignoramuses and deniers who take no responsibility for themselves or others, who take no precautions whatsoever, and show no respect for the others who want to.   If you think this whole thing is only about your own rights, your area of vision is a little too small.

 

 

[JonnyCat]

Okay, I'll go first. Here's an example of what I was hoping for. It was late last night and I didn't think to post first. I was also hoping to get some back into the discussion.

I'd like to see a re-opening soon.

I've been a self employed contractor for almost 30 years. Still working a little, remodel/repairs. Home Depot/vendors are still open, so that's not an issue. People for the most part in my area of San Diego seem to be following along with the guidelines when out and about. I feel comfortable about that. Financially, were not struggling, but retirement is looming and I need to save all I can to meet that goal. I worry about our rental property sometimes, but they're still paying rent. A lot of my subs are still working, but it's pretty slow for some of them. I worry about them staying afloat. Being out in masks is a little strange, but it's working out fine.

Wife works for the local school district and still gets paid. The school she works out is doing distance learning, but that is a slight disaster, and I'm not sure it has much value for the kids. Some kids are not participating at all. Teachers are limited to how many hours they can teach online a day, I think it's only 2. Up to the parents to get them to do the off line work. Not sure how that is going.

2 kids in college locally. Distance learning is tough. Some professors are better at it than others. Some classes are recorded, while others are live. One of my sons had to drop his math class, was doing fine in the classroom, but the online part he really struggled with and fell behind. No real mechanism for tutoring or asking questions. So that puts him behind. But the learning for both of them is just not the same. Again, don't know the value in what they are doing, and does it put them behind in subsequent classes? IDK.

Daughter, son in law, and grandkids live out of state. He's essential and still working, she's stay at home and volunteers in the kids classroom/library. Shes been working with the kids and it seem to be working out okay. She's pretty committed, though, but it's a struggle to get them to learn. Her state is more relaxed on their restrictions are are starting to open up. They could last a long time with closure no problem. 

I don't know anyone that has had Covid19. Our personal health care system seems to be operating fine. Most people I know want to open soon, too. San Diego has not been hit hard by the virus as far as I can tell.

Anyway, that's my situation.

[beerguy55]

Thanks @JonnyCat

Here goes.  Financially I'm good.  I can work from home, and at this time it looks like there's no danger to my job.   On the other side, I'm actually spending considerably less on a monthly basis.   Like many others, I'm closer to retirement than high school and hope the markets haven't set that back too much. 

The boss isn't working and doesn't need to.  However, she would like to, and can't.  She's awaiting surgery, which has been delayed as non-urgent.   Without the surgery, she's in constant pain, and would be limited to finding work where she can sit 100% of the time.  

My parents are retired, and though worried, are being smart and responsible.  The wife's parents are retired, on the road to dementia, and don't get it, or think this is a hoax.  We fully expect both of them to be dead of COVID by end of year.

My best friend owns two stores that have been closed for two months as non-essential, and are just starting to open up...this has knocked him on his ass more than anyone I know, and he needs not only things to open up, but he needs other things to get going to give people a reason to shop at his store...otherwise his only business model might be selling PPE.

Other close family friends are nurses, with the worries that go with that.

And our daughter is stuck 1000 km away.  If there wasn't Facetime I don't know what we'd do.

 

 

 

 

 

[kylehutson]

7 hours ago, JonnyCat said:

Since I'm bored and have too much time on my hands, I'd like to take this discussion in a different direction if I may.

I think this is great. It's something I've thought a lot about in the last couple of weeks  - especially the facet that your personal situation REALLY affects your opinion on the virus response.

So, first, my situation:

My day job is an IT nerd for a D1, Power 5 university with 20,000+ students (at least for the last 30+ years, we'll see about this fall). My last day in the office was March 11[1]. It should have been the 12th, but I had a JuCo doubleheader that day. ([2]Tangent on that day). 90%+ of my job can be done remotely anyway. I would work from home one day every week or two before this point. I was, within the next couple of days, deemed an "essential employee" which really just means I could come into campus if I had to without filling out a ream of paperwork. I work purely on the research side of the university, rather than the instructional side[3]. The university is paying all employees, including students, whether or not they can work remotely through the end of the semester[4]. Furloughs are a future possibility for me (though not likely, as far as I can tell). I have two side-gigs. I do computer consulting for a few small businesses - that *really* pays well, but it's so close to my day job that I get burned out if I do too much. Officiating is the opposite, it's something completely different and gets me out of a chair that I've been in all day[5]. It's my anti-burnout. Both side-gigs are my "fun money" - I use that for taking my family out to eat, vacations, etc. I'd be hard-pressed to find enough work to consult full(ish) time if I were furloughed tomorrow, but I have no doubt that within a year I could be making more consulting than I do in my current day job.

My entire family is doing really well. My wife is a school teacher for a small school. I refer to her as "the high school science department". She's not going anywhere, and she's still getting paid. My oldest child is married and works full-time at a nursing home. He just got out of a two-week complete lockdown, where he lived at the care home (and got paid quite well for doing that). My middle child is a 4th-year sophomore currently taking online classes at a community college and living at home[6]. My youngest child is a sophomore at the university where I work - she was a student employee and works at a national chain grocery store. She is getting paid by the university but not doing any work (her job was giving campus tours, and those aren't happening), and since she had extra time, she's working more at the grocery store, and getting bonuses for working when nobody else seems to want to. My stimulus check hasn't ever showed up, and I'm not sweating it. My biggest concern now is whether I can pile enough cash to pay for next semester of college without having to withdraw from a 529 that has tanked (not because I couldn't do that, but because I think it would be better to leave it there for awhile). That's a pretty good situation to be in.

Extended family, not so much. My dad is in his 70's and has parkinsons, his wife has survived a cancer scare. My wife's dad has every possible risk factor: upper-70's, chain smoker, overweight, and not-well-controlled diabetes. My mom is 70 and in quite good health, though.

My attitude about the situation:

Quite balanced. I really understand the initial response, especially as there were so many unknowns (and there still are!). I don't have much use for absolutes. I have a professor I work with who seems to think that it's perfectly fine to just have everybody stay in their house indefinitely, and some small business owner friends that think that any shutdown, or even slowdown, is ridiculous fearmongering. I don't buy into either of those (and here's the thing, they're all smart people). There has to be some balance, some "acceptable" level, as others have referred. The idea of "flattening the curve" has worked as hospitals have not been overwhelmed. It seems rational to me to open the spigot a bit and see what happens. If it gets bad, we'll have to shut off again. I don't think that will happen, but I have little confidence in that prediction. The odd part is that we *want* the number of cases to increase, because the more cases we have (in particular, the more asymptomatic or low-impact cases) in that category means the less fatal the disease is. I've been listening to this guy: ZDoggMD - he's a medical doctor at Stanford and seems to have a really reasonable approach, and is really good at turning medical-ese into understandable English. 

One thing I'm very happy about: I'm not the one that has to make those decisions. It's really a no-win scenario.

--

[1] Full disclosure: Excluding the one day in April I had to go in for physical server maintenance - it's really hard to replace parts remotely

[2] That day was strange. I got an email on my way in to the game that due to virus concerns we were not to shake hands at the plate meeting. Between games we heard that future games may be on hold. By the end of the second game, HTHC said he'd been notified that their season was done. That evening I got an email from work that I was to work from home "if at all possible" starting immediately.

[3] This is something I really didn't understand this when I was an undergrad, so I'm going to explain. PhD-granting universities don't primarily exist to teach undergraduates. They really exist to do research and use graduate students to do that research. Undergraduates, obviously, are the majority of the students, and state governments really like undergraduate students to come to schools *because* the majority of those that graduate with a bachelor's degree stay in the state they graduate from, and therefore become taxpayers. Most research is largely funded by federal grants (National Science Foundation, National Institute of Health, Department of Energy, Department of Defense, etc.)

[4] That is ending on May 15. Many employees that have been unable to work (food service workers, janitors, etc.) are being furloughed at that time. ALL student employees will be terminated at that time, and individual departments will have to justify re-hiring students at that point.

[5] Probably the biggest thing I'm missing from my office is my standing desk. I might have to invest in one of those for home soon.

[6] He's incredibly smart, but mental health issues are a bitch.

[Replacematt]

12 hours ago, JonnyCat said:

2. I consider myself a bit of a political scientist as I have a BA in Poli-Sci and have done some graduate work in that same field (a long time ago). I studied mostly political behavior of voters and interest groups. What I'm curious is your background, current status, work history, etc, that would have you formulate the position you have on this outbreak. I'm not really interested as to what your position is, but rather why do you have that particular stance, and where it stems from. What I'm trying to do is a little bit of very un-scientific research. LOL!

So, my background is similar. Same BA (and another one that isn't quite as relevant,) and my senior capstone, which led into the majority of my grad work, was political economy as affected by healthcare policy. My grad work in PS was mainly in what information is needed for governments to formulate healthcare policies and actions, so it was somewhat interdisciplinary in healthcare data analytics, but focusing on those macro data that are relevant to drive governmental decision-making. My other past grad work was in organizational and abnormal psychology and leveraging proactivity to prevent mental health issues; I'm currently finishing my first year of my MBA, as I have held a business role in healthcare for the past 6 years or so. Thus, policy in both public health and economy is something I would say with which I have at least a decent familiarity.

That context is why my 100% formal opinion isn't that we shouldn't open now, but that we don't have the information that tells us we should. My less-formal opinion, knowing that I am not a direct expert on what needs to happen, but I'm around people who do (being part of the largest healthcare organization in the world) and have a pretty good idea of what other public information is valid, is that what we do know says that it is not the time yet.

That is speaking at an overall level, and because of population mobility, I feel that is the approach we need to have.

Locally, our cases are still rising, but in a manner consistent with the projections our state did when our shelter-in-place order was enacted. I have not verified this yet, but someone mentioned today that if New York was removed, the overall US cases would still be definitively rising, as well (which speaks to how hard it hit there, and how substantial their decrease is.)

Added: For all you kids out there wanting to be frustrated the rest of your life, get a degree in political science. Also do what I did and throw in a minor in theology. No matter who you run into, they'll know more than you, and they'll let you know whether you want them to or not.

[aaluck]

7 hours ago, kylehutson said:

Since I'm bored and have too much time on my hands, I'd like to take this discussion in a different direction if I may.

Sounds like a good way to pass the time and get some insight on all of us. Great idea JonnyCat, thanks.

About me/family

I'm 52, married for 28 years, and have a son (20) and a daughter (23).  After college I was in the USMC for two years. Enjoyed it but realized with children down the road I didn't want to spend that much time away from family--6-8 months at a time.  Decided to start a second career and went to law school.  Finished that in 1996 and been at the same firm, McPhillips Shinbaum, here in Alabama ever since. 

We employ about 12 folks (typical small business) and worry about that every day, all day, as they rely on us to feed their families and pay their bills. We are allowing staff here 2-3 days a week, staggered, paying all of them full.  We DID get the PPP in the first wave which is helping a great deal.

Financially I'm doing just fine right now. What the future holds remains to be seen.  (Remember JonnyCat's rule, no judging).  I am mainly a personal injury attorney and do about 90% car accidents and right now there is NO new business--not that I hope for wrecks, but they are a fact of life and folks need help. (There is no good way to say that, or this). Although we have plenty of cases to keep us busy for the foreseeable future I do worry about what the future holds.  Other attorneys here do different things that have slowed down a great deal causing more stress. I have worked here at the office since Day 1, every day from around 9 til after 5.  In fact, with no baseball I've spent more time here since March than I usually do in a year.  I also officiate football and wrestling.

I coached my kids in all sports from age five until they hit high school.  My greatest accomplishment in life was not missing a SINGLE game either of my kids played in, any sport. When I was coaching baseball and softball the parks coordinated the schedules so I didn't have games on the same days/times.  When my son went off to HS sports I quickly realized I did not want to sit around evenings.  I began umping youth baseball, moved to HS and I have done some local college games. I still do/did all three. Last game this year was March 14.

My wife is an ultrasound RN and she performs ultrasounds mainly on pregnant women.  Normally she would work 3-4 days a week, now she is down to 1-2.  Only getting paid for time she is there working.

Like kylehutson my daughter is a 6th year senior at Auburn--she will finally be done this summer--loser boy slowed her up a bit, thankfully he's gone...did I say LOSER. She is looking for work as everything in Auburn is closed.  Of all of us she seems to be the most scared of this situation. We call her the germinator as she cleans every knob after use. Now living at home/dorms closed.

My son is a sophomore at Troy. He umpires baseball and football as well.  He started umping (t-ball etc) at age 12 and is the youngest umpire in Alabama to do HS playoff games at age 19. He has been going to college camps since he was 17 and did his first NCAA Division III game this spring--ironically his last game of the year. He is currently working for Door Dash waiting for baseball to start/or not. Now living at home/dorms closed.

My position..

I need not say much, you can go to page 12 here and see that.  Basically, I'm ready to move forward in a very new and safe way. I understand other positions and respect them.  In fact, I think we can all agree there is no RIGHT answer or solution as they all have devastating effects.

Can't wait until the day we can leave this and go back to the "Ask the Umpire" forum and discuss baseball.

[Biscuit]

Here's my Corona story.

I'm 18, dual enrolling my senior year at a local community college. 90% of my work is from the community college, so I'm basically just taking a semester of college as my last semester of high school. I've been playing baseball as long as I can remember, and this is/was almost certainly my last year of playing organized baseball. Never got a chance to say good bye to my teammates, my playing days, or the game itself. I know it'll seem insignificant in the future, but losing your senior year sucks in the moment. 

Obviously, I still live at home. My dad is the primary bread winner, and he works in the live entertainment industry (theater and concerts primarily). As he puts it, he works in the most hated profession in the world right now. We're living off of savings and unemployment*. Officiating was my source of income, and my passion. This year was to be the first year I worked high school baseball, and I was really excited. Better baseball, better money, better partners, the whole nine yards. Obviously that didn't happen. Just got the word that a league I work will be starting in less than a month, so I will have some baseball, and I will have some income... But we'll be calling balls and strikes from behind the mound. Basically means this season is a wash when it comes to umpire development.

My parent's are both in their 50's, but very healthy and not in any at risk categories. Me and my siblings are all young and healthy. I have no grandparents or older family that live closer than 10 hours away. I see them maybe once a year as it is, so that's a non factor. I don't regularly interact with at risk people outside of church. I understand that not everyone, very few people in fact, have this sort of situation, but it's quite frustrating to be in the stage I am, in the situation I am, and not even be allowed to take a small risk. Even if I were to be infected and spread it to everyone of my family members and the friends I spend time with, it is very highly unlikely that any of them would die.

Personal opinion on the whole thing: We should shut down huge gatherings of people. We should encourage people to telecommute. We should advise people on what the risks are. We should quarantine those that are sick. We should protect those who are considerably vulnerable (eliminating visitors to assisted living facilities, stuff like that). We should take precautions and eliminate the highest risk activities. What we should NOT be doing, is dictating exactly what everyone can or can't do. People should be allowed to weigh risks for themselves. Maybe a business decides that they are able to work completely or primarily from home. Great! Maybe someone decides that they don't want to risk it. Perfectly fine. Maybe someone realizes they've had some minor symptoms (of Corona or otherwise), and stay home. That's the responsible thing to do. But what about those that can't? What about those who don't have any reason to suspect the activity has any significant danger? Yes, some people are going to make stupid decisions. That's part of the risk you have to weigh.

Basically, I'm frustrated by a situation where the cure is worse than the treatment for me. It makes no sense to be confined in my house for me. For others, that's not the case. For those who are at risk or live with loved ones at risk, they absolutely should stay in home as much as possible, have food delivered when possible, and take all the precautions they can. But a one size fits all solution has a high risk of doing more damage than what it would prevent.

 

*Side note: I'm a dependent, so I don't get my own stimulus check, but I'm over the age of 17, so my dad didn't get anything in his check, nor does he get a child tax credit for me. Both of these hold for my older sister who is living at home. That's... Irritating. 

[yawetag]

Welcome to the "About Us" forum. 

 

I'll spare the humdrum of my life, other than to say I'd love for the two kids to get out of my hair. Their schools are doing the best they can given the very little notice they had, and my work has told us to work from home until the unforeseeable future. My job is directly related to tens of thousands of office buildings across this country, which means many of our employees in the branches have been furloughed. Here in the corporate office, my department has been spared, but can't say the same for many others I work around. Any one who still remains has taken pay cuts of varying percentages - I've been told our department was on the low end.

Personally, we've had to move our family trips back a year. We were heading to Los Angeles in July and Japan next year. With the Olympics pushed back a year, though, we're pushing that to 2022. All my family has been safe so far, and that's all I can ask.

[Aging_Arbiter]

I have to say, I'm still curious how the social distancing will play out as we go back to something close to being normal.  I've heard (haven't personally seen it) Little league has published an option (believe it or not) giving HPU option to umpire from behind the mound.  That's all well and good.  Is the catcher positioned within 6 feet of the batter?   Hmmmmmmmm.........

[Biscuit]

25 minutes ago, Aging_Arbiter said:

I have to say, I'm still curious how the social distancing will play out as we go back to something close to being normal.  I've heard (haven't personally seen it) Little league has published an option (believe it or not) giving HPU option to umpire from behind the mound.  That's all well and good.  Is the catcher positioned within 6 feet of the batter?   Hmmmmmmmm.........

Was just informed a couple hours ago that one of the leagues I work will be mandating umpires calling balls and strikes from behind the mound. Not may if you don't feel comfortable standing so close to the catcher and batter, have to. So it's safe enough to play baseball, but not safe enough to umpire? Okay. That doesn't make sense. I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts on mechanics (we're keeping two umpires).

They're putting into place a few other rules, most of which I don't hate.

Absolutely no use of the dugouts (a coach stands at the entrance of the dugout and doesn't let anyone through unless they're going out to bat or take their position in the field). When on the bench, the kids are to go sit with their parents. And oh, by the way, they're physically removing the bleachers and all benches from the complex. Everyone brings their own chairs.

No team huddles (can we keep this one?).

Extra time in between games, so teams aren't coming in while other teams are leaving. I don't see this working very well. 

Instead of shaking hands after the game, teams will line up on their respective foul line and tip their cap. Coaches who don't participate will apparently be punished, including a potential fine. 

The umpire rooms are going to be closed for the season (not a huge deal, I'll just come dressed. It's rec ball. I do it more to give back at this point.)

I can get over all of these except calling balls and strikes from behind the mound (which means scrapping 90% of known mechanics). The others feel reasonable if a little over cautious. This changes the game. Rotations were one of the things I was especially focusing on this year too.

[BLarson]

I'm an IT guy as well working for the largest Student Load/Payment plans companies in the US.  I'm a DBA and working towards AWS certification as we migrate to the cloud.
Our whole team (which is spread all over the US) has been working from home since March 16.   It's really no different than working in the office for me.
My wife, like others, works for the school district part time.   She is getting paid until the end of the school year without really doing very much (She works in the health office, ironically)

I have 3 kids.   Son - Sophomore in college. Son - Senior in H.S.  Daughter - Freshman in H.S. 
The 2 boys had nice gigs working 30+ hours a week.   Both were furloughed, but as Omaha opens up slowly, both are back to work.   Which is good for them as boredom is a real thing.
I feel sad for my Senior...no Prom, not Track/Field (where he was on course to go to State in 2-3 events and push school records), no graduation, no parties.

I've been involved in coaching baseball since my boys were 4 and also involved (baseball equipment) in the organizations that ran baseball.   Since they moved on Umpiring fills that void.  I also have been a volunteer coach the past 3 years for a select ball club.   Basically every day in spring/summer I was either attending games, coaching or umpiring for the past 17 years.
This makes it the most weird for me...all the free time.
I get to spend every night with my beautiful wife of almost 24 years.   This pandemic has definitely made our relationship stronger...not that it was bad or anything before...just everyone going different directions all the time.

My parents are both gone, but my in-laws have been retired for awhile, but are healthy and active and in town.

Overall...I'm just going with the flow.   It's hard to clearly see how this shakes out one way or another...or when or how.   We'll all adjust to whatever the future brings.

[JonnyCat]

9 hours ago, beerguy55 said:

Thanks @JonnyCat

Here goes.  Financially I'm good.  I can work from home, and at this time it looks like there's no danger to my job.   On the other side, I'm actually spending considerably less on a monthly basis.   Like many others, I'm closer to retirement than high school and hope the markets haven't set that back too much. 

The boss isn't working and doesn't need to.  However, she would like to, and can't.  She's awaiting surgery, which has been delayed as non-urgent.   Without the surgery, she's in constant pain, and would be limited to finding work where she can sit 100% of the time.  

My parents are retired, and though worried, are being smart and responsible.  The wife's parents are retired, on the road to dementia, and don't get it, or think this is a hoax.  We fully expect both of them to be dead of COVID by end of year.

My best friend owns two stores that have been closed for two months as non-essential, and are just starting to open up...this has knocked him on his ass more than anyone I know, and he needs not only things to open up, but he needs other things to get going to give people a reason to shop at his store...otherwise his only business model might be selling PPE.

Other close family friends are nurses, with the worries that go with that.

And our daughter is stuck 1000 km away.  If there wasn't Facetime I don't know what we'd do.

 

 

 

 

 

Where is your daughter at if you don't mind me asking? School/work?

Skype has been great for us to see and talk with the grandkids. Been doing it for years.

[JonnyCat]

6 hours ago, Matt said:

So, my background is similar. Same BA (and another one that isn't quite as relevant,) and my senior capstone, which led into the majority of my grad work, was political economy as affected by healthcare policy. My grad work in PS was mainly in what information is needed for governments to formulate healthcare policies and actions, so it was somewhat interdisciplinary in healthcare data analytics, but focusing on those macro data that are relevant to drive governmental decision-making. My other past grad work was in organizational and abnormal psychology and leveraging proactivity to prevent mental health issues; I'm currently finishing my first year of my MBA, as I have held a business role in healthcare for the past 6 years or so. Thus, policy in both public health and economy is something I would say with which I have at least a decent familiarity.

That context is why my 100% formal opinion isn't that we shouldn't open now, but that we don't have the information that tells us we should. My less-formal opinion, knowing that I am not a direct expert on what needs to happen, but I'm around people who do (being part of the largest healthcare organization in the world) and have a pretty good idea of what other public information is valid, is that what we do know says that it is not the time yet.

That is speaking at an overall level, and because of population mobility, I feel that is the approach we need to have.

Locally, our cases are still rising, but in a manner consistent with the projections our state did when our shelter-in-place order was enacted. I have not verified this yet, but someone mentioned today that if New York was removed, the overall US cases would still be definitively rising, as well (which speaks to how hard it hit there, and how substantial their decrease is.)

Added: For all you kids out there wanting to be frustrated the rest of your life, get a degree in political science. Also do what I did and throw in a minor in theology. No matter who you run into, they'll know more than you, and they'll let you know whether you want them to or not.

Too funny!

I have a minor in history, yeah, same boat! 

[StatsUmp]

21 hours ago, JonnyCat said:

So the question is for Matt and everyone that would like to answer: Why do you have the position you do? What is you current situation? Are you home, working, retired, in school, furloughed, what part of the country are you in? What have you seen in your area, what is it like for your family members or friends/neighbors? Things like that. Just a short response is all that I'm looking for.

I work at an accountant's office for a sole proprietor. Presently, I'm working from home, but I worry how long that might last with all of our small business bookkeeping clients all shut down and not paying us for now. Luckily, our tax preparation has remained on par with any other year. Small businesses have been hit very hard with the state's current restrictions and I fear some may still struggle for the rest of the year if and when they resume full operations -- our office included if we don't get our full revenue stream back any time soon. If my current job were to end any time soon, either from COVID-19 related reductions, or my boss making good on her talk of finally retiring, I'm not sure what will happen because now isn't the best time to be trying to find a new job.

I also know officials who use their money as emergency savings or supplemental income that helps pay some of their bills. Those that have already lost games this spring and face the possibility of losing games this summer and/or fall will eventually feel a noticeable hit to their budgets even if they have a primary job -- especially if they get hit with any unexpected major expenses now.

My parents, being retired from different areas of healthcare, are most concerned about a second wave. I don't know enough to know how legitimate the concern over a second wave is and how much is merely media frenzy. Neighbors seem to be making do the best they can as they seem to grasp that most of whats going on is out of their control.

Even though my city is only averaging 5 deaths per 10 000 (0.05%) at present, I'm okay for now with waiting things out until the rate of change in deaths in both the region and state decrease enough to allow business and activities to gradually resume in tiers with tiers being rolled back if and when the rate increases sharply again. I feel this is probably the most realistic approach to balance public health with people's need to function and support their households. It's probably not surprising since I've always been a realist who prefers facts, logic, and numbers over emotions and hype. Having worked for a number of small businesses over the years, my biggest concern is that the longer people are hindered in their ability to support their households or operate their businesses, the more louder the demands will be to open everything back up at once even if it's not yet the best decision.

To put it more succinctly, a veteran official I respect once told me during a basketball game's intermission that officials need to balance flow of the game and player safety at the interscholastic level without compromising either. We need a similar balance in managing the pandemic and getting people back to work.

As an aside, this was supposed to be my fourth season of softball and second season of baseball. I was especially looking forward to whatever baseball games I might have received this year so I could work at improving my baseball strike zone and mechanics while getting more comfortable with the differences between the two sports.

[umpstu]

I'm going to have Imo's pizza tomorrow.

[yawetag]

15 hours ago, Biscuit said:

I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts on mechanics (we're keeping two umpires).

I'd say to always keep U1 in A position. It gives you an extra set of eyes on fair/foul down that line (which he'll have all calls down that line) and prevents the two of you from essentially being on top of each other. Be ready to get the best position you can on fly balls down the LF line. Any line drives or grounders - give it the best you can.

Covering the bases will be tricky. Being there's no real guide for this, it might have to be a case of "see a hole, fill a hole" for the first week or two. If you've got partners who are just as serious as you, you'll begin to see how you can adjust based on situations. There might be times BU watches the touch of 1B by BR, then hustles down the line to cover HP, all while PU is covering the infield. You might have times where PU covers anything on the left side of the infield and HP while BU covers the right side and 2B.

Maybe Williamsport will scrabble together some guidance, but you'll probably find it's lacking, too. Just do the best you can.

[beerguy55]

15 hours ago, JonnyCat said:

Where is your daughter at if you don't mind me asking? School/work?

Skype has been great for us to see and talk with the grandkids. Been doing it for years.

Both - away at school, doing intern thing til fall.  Supposed to come home at Easter but flights got cancelled - not that she wants to be on a plane right now anyway.

[Aging_Arbiter]

all you smart fellas'.......with your fancy degrees.........sheesh.

I majored in combat.  If your dorm room was a squad bay, then we may be members of the same fraternity!

[Replacematt]

1 hour ago, Aging_Arbiter said:

all you smart fellas'.......with your fancy degrees.........sheesh.

I majored in combat.  If your dorm room was a squad bay, then we may be members of the same fraternity!

We did the longest combat tour in OIF. Best years of my third marriage.

[HokieUmp]

Here's mine.  I'm an IT guy, going back far too long, working for a major Defense Department.  Where I work is at a form of minimized manning, but those in high-risk categories were to self-identify, notify their supervisor, and GTFO.  (Note:  they didn't actually SAY that last part, but it was pretty well implied in the email I received.)  As a diabetic, with a side-order of "former cancer patient," I ID'd, and got out.  (I don't have a solid read on how long after one finishes chemo before one is no longer "immunocompromised," although I've heard it can be as long as two years.  No one in our medical office has challenged my self-ID.)  I'm still being paid;  I am aware of that good fortune.

My wife is retired USAF.  Our oldest daughter (29) moved with us to Texas in '18, along with her son (8).  That's turned my wife into a schoolmarm - that is a mixed bag, at best, considering my grandson's academic record.  Our daughter just started going back into work this week - where she (cue the irony) works for Dignity Memorial.  Our youngest daughter (27) is back in Virginia with her husband and her daughter, as well as his daughter from a prior marriage (part of the time).  She's a caregiver with Visiting Angels, so she hasn't stopped working;  her husband is a tattoo artist, so he's been not working for quite a while.

My main position on this, as I made clear about eight pages ago in this thread, was that this was NOT the flu, and that it WAS/IS a problem, and we should be taking this SH*# seriously.  Even more importantly, I've felt that the occupant of the White House (of whom I'm NOT a fan), and the people in his employ, should be and  should have been from the jump, taking this SH*# even more seriously.  They have not, and it has been disappointing.  My position is derived likely from being an IT person, reasonably well-educated, and also just being a big fan of science and facts, and a big believer is expertise.  (I WILL say that, while a fan of science, I don't always understand it all, which is why I'm a believer in relying on people who are trained and knowledgeable in a subject, when you're trying to figure something out IN that subject.)

One of my minors in college was political science, because I'm a big fan of that AND history.  (I went the computer science route in college, as I'm also a big fan of eating regularly.)  From that, I'm a believer that there is a role for government in many aspects of life.  I'm not saying "nanny state," but I certainly think fighting a global pandemic when it arrives in your country is EXACTLY something the federal government is supposed to be doing.  And despite being a part OF that government, my opinion of how we've done is, in academic terms, "F*#King brutal."  Were it not for some of the governors of this country, we'd probably all be doomed.

I realize our economy can't be shut down forever, and that most people haven't been as lucky as I.  But we stack enough bodies up in our attempt to get back to Walmart, there won't be anyone AROUND to open the economy.  Think that's hyperbolic?  We started opening up stuff, and when you take out the NY numbers, the cases and body count has gotten WORSE already, and that's just after a week.  Wait until places like here in Texas start their phase 2 - which I think is tomorrow, if I remember.  I personally still don't believe we're taking this seriously enough, and I can't help but think that's because people aren't good at science, nor do they trust those who ARE.

<steps down from soapbox, returns to bunker>

[umpstu]

15 hours ago, yawetag said:

I'd say to always keep U1 in A position. It gives you an extra set of eyes on fair/foul down that line (which he'll have all calls down that line) and prevents the two of you from essentially being on top of each other. Be ready to get the best position you can on fly balls down the LF line. Any line drives or grounders - give it the best you can.

Covering the bases will be tricky. Being there's no real guide for this, it might have to be a case of "see a hole, fill a hole" for the first week or two. If you've got partners who are just as serious as you, you'll begin to see how you can adjust based on situations. There might be times BU watches the touch of 1B by BR, then hustles down the line to cover HP, all while PU is covering the infield. You might have times where PU covers anything on the left side of the infield and HP while BU covers the right side and 2B.

Maybe Williamsport will scrabble together some guidance, but you'll probably find it's lacking, too. Just do the best you can.

A whacker foul ball down the third base line or a bender at the fair foul pole will be tough.  You can pretty much see if a ground ball goes over third base, but further down the line.  Whoa Nelly.  Did you live in St Louis?  If so, I didn't get to have Imo's pizza today.

[yawetag]

8 hours ago, umpstu said:

Did you live in St Louis?  If so, I didn't get to have Imo's pizza today.

In my opinion: you aren't missing out. At all.

[Biscuit]

10 hours ago, umpstu said:

A whacker foul ball down the third base line or a bender at the fair foul pole will be tough.  You can pretty much see if a ground ball goes over third base, but further down the line.  Whoa Nelly.  Did you live in St Louis?  If so, I didn't get to have Imo's pizza today.

If you have a ball down the left field line, you're screwed. Plain and simple. Do your best, eject anyone who complains 

[beerguy55]

On 5/6/2020 at 2:16 PM, Biscuit said:

 I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts on mechanics (we're keeping two umpires).

 

On 5/7/2020 at 6:17 AM, yawetag said:

Just do the best you can.

^^This^^

At this point it's rec ball - recklessness aside, they're just doing this to get the kids out and active at this point.  You're gonna get what you're gonna get.

Anyone who complains or argues about anything related to umpiring for the next six months should be fined, suspended and shot.