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Everything posted by Biscuit

  1. Sure, it's cavalier. I also think it's reality. Let's take your analogy to the extremes. Someone who you implicitly believe has the power to end all of this, for some reason, hands you an impossibly large gun with 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chambers, and says if you and your 10 closest loved ones play Russian roulette with this gun, your life, and everyone else's, goes back to normal. Would I do it? Heck yeah I would, and so would you. Take off a zero. Would I? Yeah. I don't know where I'd stop, but it wouldn't be for awhile. Now let me show you how cavalier I can be. Let's change this into more what we're seeing. Let's say you were (again, were in the hypothetical that doesn't make sense) told that some sort of disaster would occur, which would force us into isolation and shut down the economy for 10 years. A button is put in front of you. If you push this button, the crisis is averted, but one random person dies. Would you push this button? I'd hope so. Now add a zero to the number of people dead. Would you push it? I hope you would in this scenario again. Where's the line on that? Again, I don't have an answer. I'm sure you understand what I'm getting at. Yes, the sooner we open the economy and get back to normal life, the more people will die, and people dying is bad. You have to weigh the cost vs benefit, and when the cost is measured in human life, that's hard. I'm so glad that I don't have to do that in anything more than an abstract sense like we're doing here, but it has to happen. As a side note, part of that calculation has to be the cost in human life and quality life of NOT restarting normal life. There WILL be people who die as a side effect of flattening the curve. Something I've been wanting to look up, is how is this affecting suicide? I isn't know if it's yet caused any sort of spike, but if this goes on long enough, it will. There's a few problems with your estimation of 2-3 million dying if the economy opens. First, it's based off the assumption that the economy opens with no restrictions whatsoever. I have not argued that we should do it that way. We'll get back to this. Second, it's based off the assumption that the outbreak would last 12-18 months. My understanding is that a timespan of 12-18 months is if we continue with our current restrictions, and includes 2nd and 3rd waves, which will happen either way. Third, it relies on a death rate based on those who have already been tested, but that is certainly much too high due to selection bias. How many people have had it and, because they were asymptomatic, had it early on before you could get tested, or thought they just had the flu, never were diagnosed? The truth is, we have no idea how serious it is, but it's almost certainly not as bad as looking at only those who have been tested. From the start, my point, and what I've been attempting to argue, is that we could, in the not too distant future, return to most of the activities we previously were engaged in, albeit with some precautions at first. Not only can we restart life soon, but we should. With all that being said, I'm in no way an expert. I'm just a wholly unqualified 18 year old with too much time on his hands philosophizing on the internet.
  2. Again, as long as hospitals aren't over capacity, the number of total deaths probably won't really change, unless we wait the two or three years it will take to have a vaccine. There is absolutely no way that's worth it. We should shoot for running hospitals at just below capacity, using conservative models. Now, in some places that are being hit really hard, New York for example, maybe these measures will have to go on that long. I don't really know. My gut says no, but that's not really informed by anything. However, many places do not need to wait that long. I live on the Kansas Missouri Border. Under the Washington University's model, which yes is the most optimistic, but also is the one that most agencies are using, neither Kansas nor Missouri are expected to ever exceed their ICU bed or ventilator capacity, even here in the Kansas City Area. No, that doesn't mean we can relax everything all at once. I'd expect the royals probably aren't playing in front of a crowd in July, or at least, not a full crowd. Large indoor gatherings will probably have some limitations till at least the end of the summer. But most businesses could open. We could go back to baseball, though maybe with no handshakes at the plate meeting for a bit. Most of the activities we're used to will be doable, if slightly modified at first.
  3. The entire point of flattening the curve is to keep the hospitals under capacity (or at least, limit how far over capacity they go). Pretty much everyone will get it no matter how we handle this, but as long as hospitals are not over capacity, then we want to go as fast as possible. Of course, it's much worse to not flatten the curve enough than to flatten it too much, but it is definitely possible to flatten it too much.
  4. I don't think it will be immediate, no, but I also don't think it'll be what you're imagining with a terraformed social landscaped. Here's the thing. Once most people have been exposed to it (to be clear, this is based off the current understanding that this is mostly a one time disease, if that's not true we're all screwed anyway), it will be just like the other millions of serious but super rare risks we have in our daily lives. It won't be worth worrying about. I'll tell you this, once I'm out of "quarantine", I won't be wearing a mask or taking incredible measures because of fear of the virus. Yes, it's real. Yes, we need to take measures while it's raging through the country. No, we don't need it to change our lives in huge ways once this blows over out of fear.
  5. I was taking to my brother yesterday, and he brought up a good point. Many players would simply refuse to participate, especially those who have a family and don't need the money.
  6. We're not there yet, but we are pretty close. The model by the University of Washington has the peak occuring a week from today, with a number of states already surpassing that point. Don't get me wrong, the Corona Virus is serious, but there's also been some unnecessary alarmism. Unless something changes drastically, there's no reason we can't be back to mostly normal life by June, or July at the latest.
  7. Senior in high school myself. Losing this season (both playing, and the fact that it would've been my first baseball season working school ball) was/is crushing. It really, really sucks. Especially since I'm not good enough to play anywhere else, so this is pretty much the end of my playing career.
  8. When you're semi pro, your videos are good ery tyne.
  9. Way to put my poor reading comprehension on blast @Mudisfun What thread was that?
  10. Biscuit


    Yes, but even then, the difference between being set and not gives different requirements for a balk.
  11. Biscuit

    Balk or NO Balk

    I've never seen someone drive back a runner without at least hoping they could catch the guy napping. Yes they understand they won't get him 99% of the time on that throw, but they still are trying to get him out, so I'd rule it a play.
  12. Man Jax, you've really been digging up old posts recently. I respect you a ton (even though you don't know me), but maybe look at the last post date
  13. Biscuit

    Balk or NO Balk

    The no tag is just an indicator that the F3 may have been too far. Kinda like how when a catcher pulls a pitch he's telling us the pitch was probably too far to be a strike. If the F3 doesn't try to make a tag he is telling you he doesn't have a play. That may be because the runner was back easy, or it may be because he was too far to make a play. Have to use context.
  14. Biscuit

    3 Batter Minimum

    And the professional level for that matter.
  15. Gil just posted that Ramon DeJesus got hired full time. I hadn't heard that Kellogg retired either...
  16. Biscuit

    Making a call

    I'm not sure I understand the question... In the case of contradicting call and signal, the umpire will almost always immediately correct themselves. If they don't, the runner should stay on the bag until it becomes clear what the call actually was.
  17. That's where the assignor assigns. And when I say the assignor, I mean THE assignor for the area. He has 40 high schools (most of the big ones in the metro) and all their middle schools, plus a crap ton of other games if I want to add. Most of the best high schools in the metro are his, and all of the closest schools to me. I don't really have any reason to pay the extra money to get registered in Missouri right now. If I were to want to get registered in both, I would register in Missouri and then pay the reprocity fee to KS. But, I don't need both, and KS is cheaper to boot.
  18. Was this said at a rules meeting? I haven't made it to one yet (there's one more in my area), but that's consistent with what my assignor said.
  19. I live in Missouri, am registered in Kansas, can't get reciprocity in Missouri, bit I could get reciprocity in Kansas if I was registered in Missouri. Yeah, reciprocity is weird.
  20. Just fyi, next time you find a thread via search, check the last date posted. Not trying to put you down or discourage participation, we've all been there when it comes to zombieing threads, just a heads up for next time.
  21. Whoops, back to the rule book I guess... Thanks for the refresher!
  22. Let me throw a wrinkle in this. If instead of throwing the first right away the catcher attempts to tag the runner going home and, after having missed the tag, then throws to first, the run would score. Unless I'm wrong about how intervening plays work.
  23. I wouldn't have called the obstruction there. F2 peeled off before the runner reversed directions and wasn't impeding his ability to get to the plate.
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