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Gil

Discussion and Umpires - 2018 Tiebreaker Games

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Welcome to the UEFL's discussion and live blog for the 2018 NL Tiebreaker Games. We'll begin with umpires for Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: HP: Fieldin Culbreth 1B: Jeff Nelson 2B: Jim Reynolds 3B: Chad Fairchild LF: D.J. Reyburn RF: Adam Hamari. Home plate umpire performance is listed...

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On 10/1/2018 at 12:25 PM, Gil said:

Welcome to the UEFL's discussion and live blog for the 2018 NL Tiebreaker Games. We'll begin with umpires for Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: HP: Fieldin Culbreth 1B: Jeff Nelson 2B: Jim Reynolds 3B: Chad Fairchild LF: D.J. Reyburn RF: Adam Hamari. Home plate umpire performance is listed...

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There is no way I can see this plot using any of the rules for horizontal or verticle, as the 2nd pitch to the last batter (Mr. Puig) in the bottom of the second inning being considered a true ball, unless the calibrations were off. I am in no way busting on Mr. Welke who did an excellent job. I think instead of him being a perfect 91 for 91, he was 91 for 92 and that is still fantastic.

numlocation.php-pitchSel=608566&game=gid

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It was borderline per Kulpa (and also the Brooks graph uses a modified px value that is different than MLBAM's original data). In this case, Pitch #2 was assigned a px value by MLBAM of 0.759, which is within the Kulpa Rule's borderline range by about .132 inches (would have been incorrect if it was .123 inches closer to center...why? In part because the tracker can't guarantee accuracy within that ~one-inch margin). Brooks assigned Pitch #2 a px value of .671, which is what you see on the graph. That means MLBAM had the pitch over an inch farther away from the center of home plate than did Brooks. If this was a graph using MLBAM's numbers, #2 would be to the right (and slightly lower).

But, again, it goes to the earliest contact I've had with Dan, when he cautioned that his website should not be used for pitch calling. The graphics are great for visualizing concepts and trends, but remain quite misleading for pitch call analysis, which is why we use numbers, not pictures.

So to answer your question, no, there really is no way to see this pitch as a ball using the Brooks-generated plot, in great part because the plot is misleading.

Simple example: Look where the top and the bottom of the strike zone is drawn for this at bat with Puig. Now look at this same plot for any other batter and note where the top and bottom of the strike zone is drawn. No strike zone is accurate if it uses sz_bot 1.5 and sz_bot 3.5 for every single pitch to every single batter.

For illustration only, I've plotted where MLBAM had Pitch #2 relative to the Kulpa Rule's horizontal borderline range (in blue).200362492_DiscussionandUmpires-2018TiebreakerGames-CloseCallSports_UmpireEjectionFantasyLeague-Umpire-Empire.jpg.7ce58bceee180387584f7c4de72c8350.jpg

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