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Nic

Causes for MLB Umpire ERAs

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48 minutes ago, Nic said:

Looking at the MLB umpire data from Baseball Prospectus, what might lead to Mark Carlson's pitchers' 5.79 ERA over 143 IP he's been in the slot in 2018 compared to Jeff Nelson's 2.87 ERA in 138 IP behind the plate?

I ask because perhaps its transferrable to other levels.

You will have to ask your bookie.

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8 minutes ago, Nic said:

Seriously, it's like that?

With me yes. perhaps @Gil might entertain your "what might lead" question but I would think he should charge you unless he thinks he could parley it into a  money making CCS article.

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1 minute ago, Jimurray said:

With me yes. perhaps @Gil might entertain your "what might lead" question but I would think he should charge you unless he thinks he could parley it into a  money making CCS article.

I guess I dont know what your first reply meant? Insinuated from it MLB was fixed.  Is that what you are implying? Not asking how it is as a personal question between us.

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6 minutes ago, Nic said:

I guess I dont know what your first reply meant? Insinuated from it MLB was fixed.  Is that what you are implying? Not asking how it is as a personal question between us.

I  insinuated that you are interested in that stuff because  you might want to bet on in it. I don't think MLB is fixed. Otherwise most of us on this site are not going to peruse the data you have offered as it not a rule or mechanic or philosophy issue. But @Gilhas a special talent for analyizing such data. I don't know if he has the motivation to answer your question. But you might attempt it yourself.

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Okay, I respect that.  I only asked from a curious frame of mind, thinking there was something as a newer umpire I could be aware of that might affect a game I wouldn't otherwise have considered.

I wish I knew a bookie.

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Nic, the chart can be used to see which umpires are pitcher friendly and which are hitter friendly. While it can provide fascinating stats for fans, this kind of information is used mainly by sports handicappers. I found the following online:

“The purpose for keeping track of data on umpires is to learn of any biases that may be inherent in the way an individual umpire calls balls and strikes or shows sentiment for or against the home team. Psychological and other intangible factors might be used to explain why such behavior occurs. But we believe to just look at the results and use them in determining whether any biases are evident, subconscious or otherwise.

“As handicappers we must be aware of the factors likely to have the greatest influences on the outcome of a game. Obviously the home umpire is the individual who exerts the greatest influence in a game since he makes a determination on any pitch that is not hit as to whether it is a ball or a strike.

“… we use umpire data as a secondary factor in our handicapping. By that we mean that we do not use the data to put us on to a play. Rather, we use the data to supplement, reinforce or contradict a play otherwise selected.

“As an example, if there is a game we are considering as an OVER play, and the home plate umpire has shown a very strong tendency to be involved in OVER games, our OVER play is strengthened. Conversely, if the home plate umpire has shown a strong tendency to be involved in UNDER games, we might back off our OVER play if it was only a marginal or lukewarm play using other factors. If it were a strong OVER play, we might still play the game OVER despite the umpire's strong UNDER tendency, but might cut back on the size of the play.”

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7 hours ago, Nic said:

Thanks @Senor Azul clears up a lot, but bums me out because I was hoping there was some useful info to glean from the data. No use to me.

The only usefule information might be on time of games.  You should emulate those who have shorter games.  ;)

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So, Carlson's last plate was Tampa's 17-1 loss to Baltimore on 5/13. As an example, you can imagine what that would do to an umpire's ERA a month and a half into the season.

Carlson's over/under lines this season have averaged 8.5, while Nelson's O/U lines have averaged 8.0. One would expect the Carlson ERA to be higher.

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11 hours ago, Nic said:

Looking at the MLB umpire data from Baseball Prospectus, what might lead to Mark Carlson's pitchers' 5.79 ERA over 143 IP he's been in the slot in 2018 compared to Jeff Nelson's 2.87 ERA in 138 IP behind the plate?

I ask because perhaps its transferrable to other levels.

Though this might indicate which umpires are hitter friendly, this really is WAAAAAAAAAY to small a sample size.   You're talking about 15 games behind the plate.  You'd have to correlate the data with called pitch data, to see if there's a relationship between high runs (or "over" games as said in the handicapper article) and pitches on the outer edges of the zone called balls vs strikes.

If those two map up, then maybe you have a pattern.   But over 15 games...this could depend on external factors like which umps were doing cold weather games in April.

SABRmetrics/advanced statistics have devalued traditional stats like BA and ERA.  This is why you now have stats about run shares, and balls in play, etc. etc, to determine the real value of a player based on how many runs they produce/save.  You'd have to do the same advanced analytics when trying to map game outcomes to a home plate umpire.   And if any umpire is only calling 40 games in a season, you're gonna need a few years of data to find anything that can be called a pattern.

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9 hours ago, Nic said:

I guess I dont know what your first reply meant? Insinuated from it MLB was fixed.  Is that what you are implying? Not asking how it is as a personal question between us.

No. It's info the bookies would use in setting odds.

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